Aug 31 2008
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 1
Six major conferences within Division I-A football are guaranteed a place in one of five Bowl Championship Series games each January. Teams from other Division I-A conferences may qualify if they play well enough. Each Sunday, I’ll project who will play in the BCS games. The team with the best conference record gets the automatic berth. No attempt to predict future games will be made. All projections are based on a “what would happen if the season ended now” theory. Starting in mid-October, I’ll use the BCS standings to break any ties among conference leaders. Until then, I’ll use the most recent Associated Press poll.
Southeastern: #1 Georgia (1-0)
The Bulldogs handled Georgia Southern, 45-21, Saturday but lost another lineman to a season-ending injury. Georgia hosts Central Michigan (1-0) this week.
Big 10: #2 Ohio State (1-0)
The Buckeyes crushed Youngstown State, 43-0, but lost All-American running back Chris Wells to a leg injury. X-rays were negative and more testing will be done Monday. Wells won’t be needed Saturday against Ohio (0-1) but OSU will want to rely on him next week at #3 USC.
Pacific 10: #3 Southern California (1-0)
The Trojans traveled across the country and smashed Virginia, 52-7. USC looked strong and used a lot of players against the Cavaliers. USC is off Saturday and has two weeks to prepare for Ohio State’s visit Sept. 13.
Big 12: #4 Oklahoma (1-0)
The Sooners unsurprisingly throttled Chattanooga, 57-2, after leading 50-0 at halftime. Oklahoma’s next opponent, Cincinnati (1-0), is a bit better but the Sooners could easily start the year with five consecutive wins.
Big East: #8 West Virginia (1-0)
The Mountaineers began the post-Rich Rodriguez era in earnest Saturday with a 48-21 thumping of Villanova. WVU hosts East Carolina (1-0) this week. The Pirates upset #17 Virginia Tech last week, 27-22.
Atlantic Coast: #23 Wake Forest (1-0)
At least, the Demon Deacons won. They crunched Baylor on the road, 41-13, Thursday. However, conference kingpin Virginia Tech was surprised by East Carolina and title contenders Virginia and Clemson were soundly beaten. Not hard to put Wake Forest in the ACC’s spot this week.
Mountain West: #16 Brigham Young (1-0)
The Cougars dispatched Northern Iowa, 41-17, Saturday. They are also fortunate the ACC champion is ranked 23rd this week. BYU is 16th and normally only the top 12 teams would be considered for an at-large bid. However, since Wake Forest is below them, the Cougars qualify for a BCS game with a top-16 ranking. Realistically, BYU needs to be in the top 12 in December to get a place. The Cougars travel to Washington (0-1) Saturday.
With seven teams claiming automatic berths this week, there are three at-large positions available. To qualify for consideration, teams must have at least nine wins and be in the top 12 of the final BCS standings. No more than two teams from any conference may be in the BCS. No conference may have more than one at-large pick. Clemson is ninth at the moment but after its loss Saturday to #24 Alabama, 34-10, Clemson will sink next week. I’ve removed the Tigers from the top 12 and moved each trailing team one spot. Therefore, there are seven eligible at-large teams this week, understanding no team has nine wins yet:
#5 Florida (1-0, SEC)
#6 Missouri (1-0, Big 12)
#7 Louisiana State (1-0, SEC)
#9 Auburn (1-0, SEC)
#10 Texas (1-0, Big 12)
#11 Texas Tech (1-0, Big 12)
#12 Wisconsin (1-0, Big 10)
The BCS Championship Game is Jan. 8, 2009. The Fiesta Bowl is Jan. 5. The Sugar Bowl is Jan. 2. The Orange and Rose bowls are set for New Year’s Day. The championship game pits the top two teams in the final BCS standings. The other bowls have one or two “anchor” teams as described below:
Rose: Big 10 vs. Pac-10
Orange: ACC
Sugar: SEC
Fiesta: Big 12
The Big East champ is guaranteed a spot in either the Orange, Sugar or Fiesta but floats among the three. Based on these standings, Georgia and Ohio State would play for the BCS crown. The Sugar Bowl, having lost its anchor team, gets to choose a replacement. Bowl officials may select who they want among the eligibles and I think they’ll want LSU. The game is held in New Orleans and officials will want the reigning national champion from Baton Rouge. Since two SEC teams are now in the BCS, Florida and Auburn are no longer eligible.
The Rose Bowl lost the second-ranked anchor so it chooses a replacement next. The Tournament of Roses Committee–which organizes the world-famous parade and game on New Year’s Day–wants a Big 10/Pac-10 whenever possible. Wisconsin is on the board so the Badgers will be chosen. The fact that tens of thousands of fans traveled from Madison to Pasadena the last few years their team was in the Rose Bowl certainly helps.
The Fiesta Bowl, with its game time furthest after the Rose Bowl, chooses next. Oklahoma, from the Big 12, is already in the game so there’s no reason to pick a Big 12 opponent for a rematch. The best team remaining is West Virginia, the Big East champion. The game would be a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl, won by the Mountaineers, 48-21. Pitting teams in consecutive bowls is not optimal but it’s the best option this week.
The Sugar Bowl selects next. The chance to take the highly-ranked team available, featuring one of last year’s Heisman Trophy finalists at quarterback is too much to resist. Missouri, with signal caller Chase Daniel, goes to New Orleans. That pick means Big 12 mates Texas and Texas Tech are off the board. Brigham Young, the last team remaining, is left for the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS projections for Sept. 1 are as follow:
Championship-Georgia vs. Ohio State
Rose-USC vs. Wisconsin
Orange-BYU vs. Wake Forest
Sugar-LSU vs. Missouri
Fiesta-Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
