A handful of big upsets this week forced several changes in the BCS game projections. The first BCS standings will be released Oct. 19. I’ll use those standings and conference records starting then. Until then, I’ll continue to base my projections on the most recent Associated Press poll.
Big 12: #1 Oklahoma (4-0) The Sooners smashed Texas Christian (4-1), 35-10, yesterday. As the only top-four team to win Saturday, Oklahoma is the clear team to reach the top spot, although a third of the voters chose Alabama. The Sooners open conference play this week at Baylor (2-2). Oklahoma must not look ahead to next week’s showdown with #5 Texas.
Southeastern: #2 Alabama (5-0) The Crimson Tide shocked Georgia en route to a 31-0 halftime lead. The Bulldogs rallied in the second half but Alabama’s grip on the game was never seriously threatened as the Tide won, 41-30. Alabama, with coach Nick Saban and senior quarterback John Parker Wilson, seems poised to challenge for its first national title since 1993. The Crimson Tide hosts Kentucky (4-0) Saturday.
Automatic At-Large: #3 Louisiana State (4-0) The reigning national champions struggled at home against lightly-regarded Mississippi State before prevailing, 34-24. Style points are important to pollsters so Alabama’s road win against Georgia was enough to slot the Tide ahead of the Tigers. LSU is an at-large team ranked third so it gets an automatic BCS berth. That also means #4 Missouri doesn’t get an automatic bid. Only one is available under this rule. LSU will get its chance against Alabama in November. The Tigers are off this week. They’ll play at #12 Florida Oct. 11.
Big 10: #6 Penn State (5-0) The Nittany Lions’ 45-14 dismantling of Oregon State two weeks ago looks more impressive after the Beavers defeating then-#1 USC Thursday. PSU defeated then-#22 Illinois (2-2), 38-24. Thanks also to Wisconsin’s shocking loss to Michigan, PSU is the top-ranked team in the Big 10 and gets the conference’s BCS bid this week. The Nittany Lions travel to high-powered Purdue (2-2) Saturday.
Mountain West: #8 Brigham Young (4-0) The Cougars had a bye yesterday but still rose three places due to the large number of upsets. BYU travels to Utah State (1-3) Friday.
Pac-10: #9 USC (2-1) The Trojans lost at Oregon State (2-2) for the third time in four tries. USC sank to a 21-0 halftime deficit and its furious comeback fell short, 27-21. The Trojans must regroup this week at home against #23 Oregon (4-1).
Big East: #10 South Florida (5-0) The Bulls completed their non-conference slate with a 41-10 thrashing of North Carolina State (2-3). USF begins Big East action Thursday at home against up-and-down Pittsburgh (3-1). The Panthers can be very good and very bad. They don’t even know when “Good Pitt” and “Bad Pitt” will emerge. The Bulls hope to continue climbing the rankings
Atlantic Coast: #25 Wake Forest (3-1) The Demon Deacons lost at home to the Naval Academy (3-2), 24-17. Great win for Navy but Wake Forest is a more talented team playing at home. Championship-level squads win that game. The Demon Deacons are off this week before hosting #20 Clemson (3-2) Oct. 9.
Five teams are in the at-large positions this week; however, the two SEC aren’t eligible to be chosen since Alabama and LSU are guaranteed positions.
#4 Missouri (4-0, Big 12)
#5 Texas (4-0, Big 12)
#7 Texas Tech (4-0, Big 12)
#11 Georgia (4-1, SEC)
#12 Florida (3-1, SEC)
Oklahoma and Alabama would play in the BCS Championship Game. USC would face Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl, needing to replace Oklahoma, would choose Texas, thereby making Missouri and Texas Tech ineligible. The Sugar Bowl would happily tab LSU to replace Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl would choose USF, leaving BYU to the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl would need an opponent for Wake Forest but there are no teams left to pick. Therefore, the next four teams in the poll become eligible:
#13 Auburn (4-1, SEC)
#14 Ohio State (4-1, Big 10)
#15 Utah (5-0, Mountain West)
#16 Kansas (3-1, Big 12)
Due to conference quotas, Auburn, Utah and Kansas aren’t eligible. Therefore, OSU goes to the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Sept. 28 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Ohio State vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Louisiana State vs. Brigham Young
Fiesta: Texas vs. South Florida