Sep 07 2008
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 7
There was some change near the top of today’s Associated Press college football poll. Add West Virginia’s stunning three-touchdown loss to East Carolina and this week’s BCS projections have changed substantially. I’ll begin with the automatic bids as though the season ended today.
Pacific-10: #1 USC (1-0): The Trojans maintained their hold on the top spot despite not playing this week. USC has been preparing to face Ohio State at the Los Angeles Coliseum Saturday.
Southeastern: #2 Georgia (2-0): At least the Bulldogs defeated a Division I-A team Saturday. Georgia smashed Central Michigan (1-1), 56-17, and will play its SEC opener next week at South Carolina (1-1).
Big 12: #3 Oklahoma (2-0): The Sooners doubled the score against Cincinnati (1-1) this week, 52-26, and rose in the poll. Oklahoma travels to Washington Saturday. The Huskies are 0-2 but have played two ranked teams in Oregon and Brigham Young. They really should have gone to overtime with BYU so Oklahoma shouldn’t take them lightly.
At-Large: #4 Florida (2-0): The Gators broke open a close game at halftime to trounce in-state rival Miami, 26-3, Saturday. Florida will be off next week and travel to Tennessee (0-1) Sept. 20. Florida would take advantage of a BCS rule that guarantees a team ranked fourth in the final BCS standings a spot in a BCS game, provided that no at-large teams are ranked ahead of them. USC, Georgia, Oklahoma are conference leaders at the moment so the Gators are assured a berth. This rule means other SEC at-large teams–most notably LSU–are not eligible for selection since no conference may have three BCS teams.
Big 10: #5 Ohio State (2-0): Another sloppy win against inferior competition means another two-spot drop in the poll. The Buckeyes trailed Ohio (1-1), 14-12, after three quarters before doing just enough to win Saturday, 26-14. OSU must play better to win in Los Angeles against #1 USC next week. OSU hopes running back Chris Wells can play at his typical standout level.
Conference USA: #14 East Carolina (2-0): The Pirates defeated another ranked team, then-#8 West Virginia, 24-3, Saturday. ECU now takes advantage of the rule that lets a non-BCS conference team into a BCS game with the 14th ranking if major conference leaders fare worse. The Pirates will start conference play at home Saturday against Tulane (0-1).
Big East: #19 South Florida (2-0): The Bulls needed overtime to edge a determined Central Florida squad (1-1), 31-24, in Orlando Saturday. USF will host #13 Kansas (2-0) Friday night. Thanks to West Virginia’s loss to East Carolina, USF is now the Big East’s top team in the AP poll. Therefore, the Bulls earn this week’s automatic bid.
Atlantic Coast: #20 Wake Forest (2-0): The Demon Deacons used a field goal on the final play to squeak past Mississippi (1-1), 30-28, last week. The ACC is still struggling mightily but Wake Forest remains a standard bearer. The Demon Deacons travel to face traditional ACC power Florida State (1-0) Saturday.
With eight of 10 BCS game slots automatically earned this week, only two at-large berths are available. The teams on the list include:
#6 Missouri (2-0)
#7 Louisiana State (1-0)
#8 Texas (2-0)
#9 Auburn (2-0)
#10 Wisconsin (2-0)
#11 Alabama (2-0)
#12 Texas Tech (2-0)
We already know the SEC team–LSU, Auburn and Alabama–aren’t eligible since Georgia and Florida are automatic picks. The BCS Championship Game again features USC and Georgia. The Rose Bowl has no reason to change last week’s matchup of Big 10 leader OSU and replacement from the Big 12, Texas. Selecting Texas means Big 12 mates Missouri and Texas Tech are no longer eligible.
The Sugar Bowl, knowing LSU is off the board, would probably replace Georgia with Florida and keep the SEC crowd happy. The Fiesta Bowl would happily choose Wisconsin again to face Oklahoma. The Sugar Bowl wouldn’t be thrilled with either of the two remaining options but would likely select USF, leaving ECU to battle Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Sept. 7 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Southern California vs. Georgia
Rose: Ohio State vs. Texas
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Orange: East Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Florida vs. South Florida
