Oct 18 2008
BCS Game Projections for Oct. 18
Most of the top 10 won this week. Only #9 BYU lost. Florida, rated fifth, was off today. The Bowl Championship Series rankings will be released Sunday but, considering the lack of upsets, I’m confident in the projections for this week.
Big 12–#1 Texas (7-0):
The Longhorns crushed #11 Missouri (5-2), 56-31, tonight. Texas led, 35-3, at halftime and traded scores during the second half. The Longhorns look strong and will be a near-unanimous number-one team tomorrow. Texas’s gauntlet continues next week against #8 Oklahoma State.
Texas’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Oklahoma State (7-0)
Nov. 1: At Texas Tech (7-0)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Baylor (3-4)
Nov. 15: At Kansas (5-2)
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (2-5)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Southeastern–#2 Alabama (7-0):
The Crimson Tide was fortunate today. After building a 24-3 halftime lead at home against Mississippi (3-4), Alabama did not score in the second half. The Rebels closed to within 24-20 but couldn’t score on their last possession and Alabama escaped with the win. Style points matter though so expect the Tide to lose some ground in the polls, especially considering the impressive wins from Texas and Penn State. Except for next month’s game against LSU, Alabama will be heavily favored the rest of the regular season.
Alabama’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Tennessee (3-4)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Arkansas State (3-4)
Nov. 8: At Louisiana State (5-1)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (2-5)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (4-3)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game
Big 10–#3 Penn State (8-0):
The Nittany Lions needed a half to get going against Michigan (2-5). PSU trailed at Happy Valley in the second quarter, 17-7, and at the break, 17-14. The second half was all PSU though. The Lions scored the game’s last 39 points and won convincingly, 46-17. WIth the victory, PSU broke a nine-game head-to-head winning streak for the Wolverines. The biggest game of the season comes next week at Ohio State.
Penn State’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Ohio State (7-1)
Nov. 8: At Iowa (5-3)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (2-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Michigan State (6-2)
Automatic At-Large–#4 Oklahoma (6-1):
The Sooners rebounded well from last week’s defeat by outscoring #16 Kansas (5-2), 45-31, at home. Oklahoma will remain in fourth place, especially considering #5 Florida (5-1) was off today. Therefore, the Sooners claim a BCS berth. Oklahoma should reach 9-1 quite easily before two tussles to end the year. The Sooners need plenty of help from Texas to play in the Big 12 title game.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Oct. 25: At Kansas State (4-3)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Nebraska (4-3)
Nov. 8: At Texas A&M (2-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Texas Tech (7-0)
Nov. 29: At Oklahoma State (7-0)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Pacific-10–#6 USC (5-1):
The Trojans did not look past hapless Washington State (1-7) today. USC was nearly perfect in the first half en route to a 41-0 lead. The Trojans reserves played well in the second half and the Cougars’ streak of scoring in 288 consecutive games was over. USC won, 69-0. Coupled with California’s (4-2) loss tonight at Arizona (5-2), no team in the Pac-10 is unbeaten. Five teams have one conference loss and four of them are 3-1 in the league. Of that group, USC is the highest-rated so the Trojans are projected into the BCS this week. A lot will be decided next week when USC travels to Arizona.
USC’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Arizona (5-2)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Washington (0-6)
Nov. 8: Home vs. California (4-2)
Nov. 15: At Stanford (4-4)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Notre Dame (4-2)
Dec. 6: At UCLA (3-4)
Mountain West–#14 Utah (8-0):
Brigham Young’s loss Thursday to Texas Christian leaves the BCS door open for the Utes. Utah thrashed Colorado State (3-4), 49-16, today. Utah will likely be in the top 12 in tomorrow’s BCS standings, thanks to losses by BYU and Missouri this week. However, thanks to the low ratings of the Big East and ACC, 14th is good enough for Utah to get a BCS slot. The Utes have two weeks to prepare for their next game, at New Mexico.
Utah’s remaining schedule
Nov. 1: At New Mexico (4-4)
Nov. 6: Home vs. Texas Christian (7-1)
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-6)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (6-1)
Big East–#23 Pittsburgh (5-1):
The Panthers raced past the Naval Academy (4-3) in the second half to defeat the Midshipman, 42-21, at Annapolis today. Pittsburgh has won five straight after a disappointing loss to Bowling Green (3-4) in the season opener. The Panthers are tied for first in the Big East with West Virginia (4-2) at 2-0 but Pittsburgh is the higher-ranked team. South Florida (6-1) is the highest-rated team in the conference, according to this week’s AP poll but the Bulls are in fourth place in the Big East and lost at home to Pittsburgh Oct. 2. The Panthers get the BCS spot.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Rutgers (2-5)
Nov. 1: At Notre Dame (4-2)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Louisville (4-2)
Nov. 22: At Cincinnati (5-1)
Nov. 28: Home vs. West Virginia (4-2)
Dec. 6: At Connecticut (5-2)
Atlantic Coast–Georgia Tech (6-1):
The ACC is a mess. The conference had three ranked teams entering play today. All of them–#17 Virginia Tech, #18 North Carolina and #21 Wake Forest–lost to unranked conference foes. Seven ACC teams have one conference loss and no team is unbeaten in ACC play. Georgia Tech is the only 3-1 team; therefore, the Yellow Jackets get the BCS bid this week. The Yellow Jackets had a solid win today at Clemson, 21-17.
Georgia Tech’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Virginia (4-3)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Florida State (5-1)
Nov. 8: At North Carolina (5-2)
Nov. 20: Home vs. Miami (4-3)
Nov. 29: At Georgia (6-1)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Eight teams are projected to have automatic BCS spots this week, leaving two at-large positions. I predict Louisiana State will be in the BCS top 12 so six teams in the at-large pool.
#5 Florida (5-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (7-0, Big 12)
#8 Oklahoma State (7-0, Big 12)
#10 Georgia (6-1, SEC)
#12 Ohio State (7-1, Big 10)
#13 LSU (5-1, SEC)
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are immediately out since Texas and Oklahoma have guaranteed positions. The Fiesta Bowl pick Oklahoma to replace Texas, which is off to the championship game. The Sugar Bowl needs to replace Alabama. Bowl officials will probably want LSU if at all possible so the Tigers go to New Orleans, leaving Florida and Georgia ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would next select Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl would take Pittsburgh, leaving Utah to face Georgia Tech. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Oct. 18 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Utah vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
