Nov 08 2008
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 8
The college football regular season is about three-fourths done. Penn State’s stunning loss at Iowa was the most impactful game on this week’s BCS projections. I predict the Nittany Lions will fall from third to seventh although that’s still good enough for a Rose Bowl bid. Alabama and Texas Tech, the only two BCS-conference teams that are undefeated, are easy choices to be the top two this week.
Southeastern: #1 Alabama (10-0)
The Crimson Tide intercepted LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee four times, including once in overtime, and survived a 27-21 thriller in Baton Rouge. Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilson wasn’t perfect Saturday but he did enough to enable the Tide to clinch the SEC West crown. Two games against downtrodden opponents mark the end of the regular season. Alabama faces Florida, which claimed the SEC East title tonight, for the conference championship next month.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (3-6)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (5-5)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta vs. Florida (8-1)
Big 12: #2 Texas Tech (10-0)
The Red Raiders suffered no ill effects from their week in the sun after beating then-#1 Texas. Texas Tech smashed #9 Oklahoma State (8-2), 56-20, in Lubbock tonight. TTU was consistent, scoring exactly 14 points in each period. The Cowboys stayed close for awhile but their offense couldn’t keep pace with Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and company. The Red Raiders are off next week before their showdown at Oklahoma in two weeks.
Texas Tech’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Oklahoma (9-1)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Baylor (3-7)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Automatic At-Large: #3 Texas (9-1)
The Longhorns rebounded nicely after last week’s loss, throttling overmatched Baylor at home, 45-21. Texas should win its last two regular-season gaems, starting with sinking Kansas next week. However, the Longhorns need help from archrival Oklahoma in the form of a win over Texas Tech in order to win the Big 12 South.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At Kansas (6-4)
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (4-6)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Big 10: #7 Penn State (9-1)
The Nittany Lions blew a 23-14 fourth-quarter lead at Iowa (6-4) and lost on a field goal with one second to play, 24-23. I see PSU dropping four spots in the next BCS ranking but I don’t think Utah will pass the Nittany Lions so PSU takes seventh place. PSU is still in control of the Big 10 race. Win the last two games and the Lions are headed to Pasadena.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (3-7)
Nov. 22: At Michigan State (9-2)
Mountain West: #8 Utah (10-0)
The Utes trailed #12 Texas Christian (9-2), 10-0, in the first quarter Thursday. However, Utah’s defense stiffened in the last three period. A nine-yard pass from Brian Johnson to Freddie Evans with 48 seconds left to play gave the Utes their only touchdown but it was enough to win, 13-10, in Salt Lake City. Utah needs a couple of extra days to prepare for last-place San Diego State next week but the key test comes Nov. 22 against archrival BYU.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-9)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (9-1)
Atlantic Coast: #19 North Carolina (7-2)
The Tar Heels are the highest-ranked ACC team so they get the bid. UNC is one of six ACC squads to have two conference losses, which is enough to be tied for first. The Tar Heels had a solid home win today, defeating #20 Georgia Tech (7-3), 28-7. UNC’s biggest remaining test comes next week at Maryland.
North Carolina’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At Maryland (6-3)
Nov. 22: Home vs. North Carolina State (3-6)
Nov. 29: At Duke (4-5)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Big East: #25 Pittsburgh (7-2)
The Panthers crushed visiting Louisville (5-4), 41-7, Saturday. Pittsburgh joined a three-way tie for first place in the Big East after Cincinnati defeated West Virginia, 26-23, in overtime. Cincinnati blew a 20-7 fourth-quarter lead in Morgantown but scored a touchdown on its extra possession after West Virginia kicked a field goal to begin overtime. All three teams are 3-1 in conference action. Pittsburgh is off next week.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Cincinnati (7-2)
Nov. 28: Home vs. West Virginia (6-3)
Dec. 6: At Connecticut (6-3)
Pacific-10: Oregon State (6-3)
After struggling to a 3-3 score at halftime, the Beavers wore down UCLA (3-6) in the second half and cruised to a 34-6 win at the Rose Bowl. Coupled with USC’s (8-1) 17-3 victory against California, the Beavers and Trojans are the only Pac-10 teams to have fewer than two conference losses. Oregon State gets the BCS bid this week because the Beavers beat USC, 27-21, Sept. 25. If OSU wins its last three games, it goes to its first Rose Bowl in 40 years.
Oregon State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. California (6-3)
Nov. 22: At Arizona (6-3)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Oregon (7-3)
There are two remaining BCS slots and the following seven teams are in this week’s projected at-large pool:
#4 Florida (8-1, SEC)
#5 Oklahoma (9-1, Big 12)
#7 USC (8-1, Pac-10)
#9 Boise State (9-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Ohio State (8-2, Big 10)
#11 Georgia (8-2, SEC)
#12 Missouri (8-2, Big 12)
The Sugar Bowl would pick first after losing Alabama to the BCS championship game. Organizers would take Florida, leaving Georgia ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would then choose a replacement for Texas Tech next. Officials would jump at Texas, rendering Oklahoma and Missouri ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would next pick USC as an at-large. The Sugar Bowl would tab Pittsburgh, leaving Utah to face North Carolina in the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Nov. 8 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Orange: Utah vs. North Carolina
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
