Aug 23 2009
BCS Game Projections for Aug. 23
I’m glad college football season is nearly here. I’ll be pleased to offer weekly projections for the five Bowl Championship Series games: the Rose Bowl, Sugar Bowl, Fiesta Bowl, Orange Bowl and BCS National Championship Game. Ten teams will qualify for the BCS. Six teams are guaranteed berths because they’re in major conferences. A non-major conference team can qualify if it’s rated high enough. So can Notre Dame. Eligible at-large squads fill the open spots. Remember that no conference may have more than two teams in the BCS.
Southeastern: #1 Florida
Pollsters are confident Tim Tebow will lead the Gators to their third BCS championship in four years. Navigating the SEC won’t be easy although the non-conference slate is mostly lackluster. Mississippi, which upset Florida in Gainesville last year, isn’t on the schedule. The Rebels could possibly face Florida in the SEC Championship Game Dec. 5. The games at LSU and against Georgia loom.
Florida’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. Charleston Southern
Sept. 12: Home vs. Troy
Sept. 19: Home vs. Tennessee
Sept. 26: At Kentucky
Oct. 10: At Louisiana State
Oct. 17: Home vs. Arkansas
Oct. 24: At Mississippi State
Oct. 31: Vs. Georgia in Jacksonville
Nov. 7: Home vs. Vanderbilt
Nov. 14: At South Carolina
Nov. 21: Home vs. Florida International
Nov. 28: Home vs. Florida State
Big 12: #2 Texas
The Longhorns fell agonizingly short of the BCS title game last season. Quarterback Colt McCoy has returned for his senior season to go after a championship. Texas gets Texas Tech–the only team to beat the Longhorns last year–at home this season. The non-conference games figure to be easy pickings. The annual Dallas clash against Oklahoma will be critical. The Halloween game at Oklahoma State will also be very important.
Texas’ 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. Louisiana-Monroe
Sept. 12: At Wyoming
Sept. 19: Home vs. Texas Tech
Sept. 26: Home vs. Texas-El Paso
Oct. 10: Home vs. Colorado
Oct. 17: Vs. Oklahoma in Dallas
Oct. 24: At Missouri
Oct. 31: At Oklahoma State
Nov. 7: Home vs. Central Florida
Nov. 14: At Baylor
Nov. 21: Home vs. Kansas
Nov. 26: At Texas A&M
Automatic At-Large: #3 Oklahoma
The Sooners lost to Florida in last season’s BCS Championship Game. Quarterback Sam Bradford won the Heisman Trophy in 2008. He’s back in 2009 to lead Oklahoma to a title. Opening against BYU in the Dallas Cowboys’ new billion-dollar pleasure palace will be tough. A second panhandle game–the perennial battle against Texas–will be key to determining the Big 12 South winner. Playing at Miami or Texas Tech is never easy.
Oklahoma’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Vs. Brigham Young in Arlington, Texas
Sept. 12: Home vs. Idaho State
Sept. 19: Home vs. Tulsa
Oct. 3: At U. of Miami
Oct. 10: Home vs. Baylor
Oct. 17: Vs. Texas in Dallas
Oct. 24: At Kansas
Oct. 31: Home vs. Kansas State
Nov. 7: At Nebraska
Nov. 14: Home vs. Texas A&M
Nov. 21: At Texas Tech
Nov. 28: Home vs. Oklahoma State
Pacific-10: #4 USC
The Trojans are again picked to do well. USC must avoid the bad conference loss that’s wrecked its national title hopes in recent campaigns. The Trojans will likely be motivated to play hard at Ohio State and Notre Dame. USC loves to play spotlight games and few contests will be more highlighted. Consecutive road games at tough Pac-10 foes Oregon and Arizona State could prove to be this year’s Oregon State debacle.
USC’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. San Jose State
Sept. 12: At Ohio State
Sept. 19: At Washington
Sept. 26: Home vs. Washington State
Oct. 3: At California
Oct. 17: At Notre Dame
Oct. 24: Home vs. Oregon State
Oct. 31: At Oregon
Nov. 7: At Arizona State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Stanford
Nov. 28: Home vs. UCLA
Dec. 5: Home vs. Arizona
At-Large: #5 Alabama
The Crimson Tide are still smarting after being thumped by Florida in the SEC title game and by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama had been 12-0 and ranked number one in the country. Rarely do 12-2 seasons feel so empty. The Tide must recover without graduated quarterback John Parker Wilson. Unlike many top-end teams, Alabama is starting with a bang. The Tide is facing Virginia Tech in Atlanta to begin the season. The winner of that game will be an early BCS favorite. Watch the game at Mississippi.
Alabama’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Vs. Virginia Tech in Atlanta
Sept. 12: Home vs. Florida International
Sept. 19: Home vs. North Texas
Sept. 26: Home vs. Arkansas
Oct. 3: At Kentucky
Oct. 10: At Mississippi
Oct. 17: Home vs. South Carolina
Oct. 24: Home vs. Tennessee
Nov. 7: Home vs. Louisiana State
Nov. 14: At Mississippi State
Nov. 21: Home vs. Chattanooga
Nov. 27: At Auburn
Big Ten: #6 Ohio State
The Buckeyes had to regroup after being embarrassed by USC, 35-3, last year. They did so behind freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor. With most of a season under his belt, Pryor is expected to be ready to lead OSU past USC when the Trojans visit Columbus next month. Not to mention finding a way past Penn State in State College. Aside from the noted USC tilt, the first half of the Buckeyes’ schedule couldn’t be more tailor-made for a championship run.
Ohio State’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. Navy
Sept. 12: Home vs. USC
Sept. 19: Vs. Toledo in Cleveland
Sept. 26: Home vs. Illinois
Oct. 3: At Indiana
Oct. 10: Home vs. Wisconsin
Oct. 17: At Purdue
Oct. 24: Home vs. Minnesota
Oct. 31: Home vs. New Mexico State
Nov. 7: At Penn State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Iowa
Nov. 21: At Michigan
Atlantic Coast: #7 Virginia Tech
The Hokies pride themselves on not fearing opponents. VT will be in the country’s biggest game opening weekend, in Atlanta against Alabama. If the Hokies win the game, they’ll be poised to climb the polls. VT made its mark with stellar performances on Thursday nights and the consecutive primetime games against North Carolina and East Carolina should keep the Hokies on the minds of pollsters.
Virginia Tech’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Vs. Alabama in Atlanta
Sept. 12: Home vs. Marshall
Sept. 19: Home vs. Nebraska
Sept. 26: Home vs. U. of Miami
Oct. 3: At Duke
Oct. 10: Home vs. Boston College
Oct. 17: At Georgia Tech
Oct. 29: Home vs. North Carolina
Nov. 5: At East Carolina
Nov. 14: At Maryland
Nov. 21: Home vs. North Carolina State
Nov. 28: At Virginia
At-Large: #9 Penn State
The Nittany Lions have one dilemma when looking at the first half of their schedule: Will Illinois quarterback Juice Williams regain his Rose Bowl form of 2007? If not, PSU will easily be 7-0 heading into Ann Arbor. The Lions will need to beat Ohio State to keep control of the Big 10 and the season finale at Michigan State will not be easy.
Penn State’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. Akron
Sept. 12: Home vs. Syracuse
Sept. 19: Home vs. Temple
Sept. 26: Home vs. Iowa
Oct. 3: At Illinois
Oct. 10: Home vs. Eastern Illinois
Oct. 17: Home vs. Minnesota
Oct. 24: At Michigan
Oct. 31: At Northwestern
Nov. 7: Home vs. Ohio State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Indiana
Nov. 21: At Michigan State
Western Athletic: #14 Boise State
The Broncos, based on the preseason poll and BCS rules, would play in a BCS game. BSU faces a standard problem. Its schedule is not daunting. Oregon is usually good. Tulsa was in the top 25 last year. No one likes to play at Fresno State or Hawaii. Otherwise, the slate simply isn’t very strong. The WAC doesn’t offer enough quality competition. That said, BSU must be undefeated to earn a major bowl bid. Even though, a national championship game appearance seems unlikely.
Boise State’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 3: Home vs. Oregon
Sept. 12: Home vs. Miami U.
Sept. 18: At Fresno State
Sept. 26: At Bowling Green
Oct. 3: Home vs. UC Davis
Oct. 14: At Tulsa
Oct. 24: At Hawaii
Oct. 31: Home vs. San Jose State
Nov. 6: At Louisiana Tech
Nov. 14: Home vs. Idaho
Nov. 20: At Utah State
Nov. 27: Home vs. Nevada
Dec. 5: Home vs. New Mexico State
Big East: Pittsburgh
Someone has to have the Big East’s automatic BCS berth. No conference team is in the AP top 25 but the Panthers garnered the most votes. Pollsters apparently think West Virginia, Louisville and Connecticut will struggle after losing valuable backfield players to the NFL. The Big East is an exciting league that’s usually nip-and-tuck to the finish. However, it seems there won’t be any top-echelon coming from the league this year. Pittsburgh must be focused each game to avoid letdowns.
Pittsburgh’s 2009 schedule
Sept. 5: Home vs. Youngstown State
Sept. 12: At Buffalo
Sept. 19: Home vs. Navy
Sept. 26: At North Carolina State
Oct. 2: At Louisville
Oct. 10: Home vs. Connecticut
Oct. 16: At Rutgers
Oct. 24: Home vs. South Florida
Nov. 7: Home vs. Syracuse
Nov. 14: Home vs. Notre Dame
Nov. 27: At West Virginia
Dec. 5: Home vs. Cincinnati
The other teams in the at-large pool are:
#8 Mississippi, SEC
#9 Oklahoma State, Big 12
#11 Louisiana State, SEC
#12 California, Pac-10
Florida and Texas, as the top two teams, would play in the BCS Championship Game. USC and Ohio State would head to the Rose Bowl in the traditional Big 10-Pac 10 matchup. The Sugar Bowl would likely choose Alabama to replace departed Florida. The Fiesta Bowl would probably choose Oklahoma to take Texas’s place.
The Sugar Bowl gets the first at-large choice and would select Penn State. The Orange Bowl would take Pittsburgh next, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to claim Boise State. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Aug. 23 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: USC vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Alabama vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Boise State
Orange: Virginia Tech vs. Pittsburgh
