Sep 24 2009
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 24
USC suffered a stunning upset at Washington last week that is becoming predictable. The Trojans slid from third to 12th in the Associated Press poll. The rest of the top teams continued unscathed as September, the month of mostly lackluster non-conference action, draws to a close.
Southeastern: #1 Florida (3-0)
Tennessee (1-2) kept the game close but the Gators prevailed, 23-13. Florida shouldn’t look past SEC East foe Kentucky but the Wildcats (2-1) aren’t in Florida’s league.
Florida’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: At Kentucky
Oct. 10: At Louisiana State
Oct. 17: Home vs. Arkansas
Oct. 24: At Mississippi State
Oct. 31: Vs. Georgia in Jacksonville
Nov. 7: Home vs. Vanderbilt
Nov. 14: At South Carolina
Nov. 21: Home vs. Florida International
Nov. 28: Home vs. Florida State
Big 12: #2 Texas (3-0)
Texas Tech (2-1) played better in Austin than I expected but the Red Raiders still fell to the Longhorns, 34-24. Texas got a measure of revenge for last season’s crushing loss. Games against UTEP and Colorado are just preamble to the biggest of the Longhorns’ 12 regular season games, in Dallas against Oklahoma.
Texas’ remaining schedule
Sept. 26: Home vs. Texas-El Paso
Oct. 10: Home vs. Colorado
Oct. 17: Vs. Oklahoma in Dallas
Oct. 24: At Missouri
Oct. 31: At Oklahoma State
Nov. 7: Home vs. Central Florida
Nov. 14: At Baylor
Nov. 21: Home vs. Kansas
Nov. 26: At Texas A&M
Automatic At-Large: #3 Alabama (3-0)
The Crimson Tide predictably crushed overmatched North Texas (1-2) last week. Arkansas, featuring quarterback Ryan Mallett, will score some points against Alabama. However, the Razorback defense isn’t strong. Alabama should win at home.
Alabama’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: Home vs. Arkansas
Oct. 3: At Kentucky
Oct. 10: At Mississippi
Oct. 17: Home vs. South Carolina
Oct. 24: Home vs. Tennessee
Nov. 7: Home vs. Louisiana State
Nov. 14: At Mississippi State
Nov. 21: Home vs. Chattanooga
Nov. 27: At Auburn
Big Ten: #5 Penn State (3-0)
The Nittany Lions have done what they were supposed to do against three inferior opponents. The first test comes Saturday against the only Big Ten squad that beat PSU last year. This time, the Lions play at Happy Valley. The home crowd will be the difference.
Penn State’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: Home vs. Iowa
Oct. 3: At Illinois
Oct. 10: Home vs. Eastern Illinois
Oct. 17: Home vs. Minnesota
Oct. 24: At Michigan
Oct. 31: At Northwestern
Nov. 7: Home vs. Ohio State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Indiana
Nov. 21: At Michigan State
Pacific-10: #6 California (3-0)
The Golden Bears have the best running back in the country. Jahvid Best scored five touchdowns in a 35-21 win at Minnesota. Combined with USC’s loss, California is the top-rated team in the conference. The Pac-10 opener at Eugene against a rejuvenated Oregon squad (2-1) is daunting.
California’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: At Oregon
Oct. 3: Home vs. USC
Oct. 17: At UCLA
Oct. 24: Home vs. Washington State
Oct. 31: At Arizona State
Nov. 7: Home vs. Oregon State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Arizona
Nov. 21: At Stanford
Dec. 5: At Washington
Western Athletic: #8 Boise State (3-0)
The Broncos wore down Fresno State and defeated the Bulldogs in Fresno, 51-34, Friday. Thanks to Brigham Young’s humbling loss to Florida State, BSU is the only non-BCS team in the top 14. Therefore, the Broncos get an automatic berth. It’s quite possible BSU will play Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl for the second time. Everyone remembers what happened the first time.
Boise State’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: At Bowling Green
Oct. 3: Home vs. UC Davis
Oct. 14: At Tulsa
Oct. 25: At Hawaii
Oct. 31: Home vs. San Jose State
Nov. 6: At Louisiana Tech
Nov. 14: Home vs. Idaho
Nov. 20: At Utah State
Nov. 27: Home vs. Nevada
Dec. 5: Home vs. New Mexico State
Atlantic Coast: #9 Miami (2-0)
The Hurricanes beat their second top-20 team, then-#14 Georgia Tech (2-1), last week. Miami stopped GT’s option offense and won, 33-17. Should the Hurricanes finish the opening gauntlet that was easily the hardest in the nation unbeaten, Miami will be a national title contender. First stop: Blacksburg against a Virginia Tech team that desperately needs a win to keep its BCS hopes alive.
Miami’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: At Virginia Tech
Oct. 3: Home vs. Oklahoma
Oct. 10: Home vs. Florida A&M
Oct. 17: At Central Florida
Oct. 24: Home vs. Clemson
Oct. 31: At Wake Forest
Nov. 7: Home vs. Virginia
Nov. 14: At North Carolina
Nov. 21: Home vs. Duke
Nov. 28: At South Florida
At-Large: #10 Oklahoma (2-1)
The Sooners smashed Tulsa in surprisingly easy fashion. Oklahoma’s offense looked great against the Golden Hurricane. Tulsa’s vaunted passing attack never found the end zone. The Sooners can use the extra time to prepare for Miami. More specifically, Sam Bradford can use another week to recover from his injury. Landon Jones did well the past two games but Bradford is the reigning Heisman Trophy winner and Miami is a top-10 team.
Oklahoma’s 2009 schedule
Oct. 3: At U. of Miami
Oct. 10: Home vs. Baylor
Oct. 17: Vs. Texas in Dallas
Oct. 24: At Kansas
Oct. 31: Home vs. Kansas State
Nov. 7: At Nebraska
Nov. 14: Home vs. Texas A&M
Nov. 21: At Texas Tech
Nov. 28: Home vs. Oklahoma State
At-Large: #12 USC (2-1)
Matt Barkley is clearly more vital to the Trojans than I thought. Barkley missed last week’s game against Washington with a shoulder injury. Aaron Corp replaced him but after a quick start, failed to generate much offense for USC. Husky signal-caller Jake Locker was the better quarterback Saturday and that’s the biggest reason #24 Washington pulled the season’s largest upset to date. USC must regroup quickly against Washington State (1-2) before visiting California.
USC’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: Home vs. Washington State
Oct. 3: At California
Oct. 17: At Notre Dame
Oct. 24: Home vs. Oregon State
Oct. 31: At Oregon
Nov. 7: At Arizona State
Nov. 14: Home vs. Stanford
Nov. 28: Home vs. UCLA
Dec. 5: Home vs. Arizona
Big East: #14 Cincinnati (3-0)
The Bearcats won at Oregon State (2-1). Cincinnati’s road win over a good Pac-10 squad justifies its top-15 ranking this week. The Bearcats must not be complacent Saturday as Fresno State (1-2) comes to town.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule
Sept. 26: Home vs. Fresno State
Oct. 3: At Miami U.
Oct. 15: At South Florida
Oct. 24: Home vs. Louisville
Oct. 31: At Syracuse
Nov. 7: Home vs. Connecticut
Nov. 13: Home vs. West Virginia
Nov. 27: Home vs. Illinois
Dec. 5: At Pittsburgh
The other teams in the at-large pool are:
#4 Mississippi (2-0), SEC
#7 Louisiana State (3-0), SEC
#11 Virginia Tech (2-1), ACC
#13 Ohio State (2-1), Big 10
The BCS Championship Game would pit Florida against Texas. California and Penn State would meet in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would choose Alabama to replace Florida. Since two SEC teams would be included, Mississippi and LSU are now ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would tab Oklahoma to replace Texas.
The Sugar Bowl would take USC as an at-large. Assuming no more stumbles, the Trojans are the only western team to have a national following. They’ll be popular. The Orange Bowl would take Cincinnati next, leaving Boise State for the Fiesta Bowl. Oklahoma won’t relish a potential rematch in Arizona. The BCS game projections for Sept. 24 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Texas
Rose: Penn State vs. California
Sugar: Alabama vs. USC
Fiesta: Boise State vs. Oklahoma
Orange: Miami vs. Cincinnati
