Nov 29 2009
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 29
The top six teams in the country couldn’t be more clearly defined. Florida, Alabama, Texas, Texas Christian, Cincinnati and Boise State are all undefeated. TCU has finished play until its bowl game. The others must play Saturday. They all deserve BCS berths. In large measure because the at-large pool has shriveled in recent weeks. No team outside the top six has fewer than two losses. They don’t deserve to play in a major bowl more than Boise State or the Florida/Alabama loser. This week’s BCS standings haven’t been released yet but I’m confident in the projections. I’ll post my final projections next Sunday morning, Dec. 6, before the BCS Selection Show at 8 p.m. eastern.
Southeastern: #1 Florida (12-0)
The Gators completed the regular season by thrashing Florida State (6-6), 37-10. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow was stellar as usual, accounting for four touchdowns in his last home game. The contest everyone has wanted to see all season has finally arrived. Florida faces Alabama in the SEC title game. The winner goes to the BCS championship game. The loser likely plays in the Sugar Bowl New Year’s Day.
Florida’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: SEC Championship Game vs. Alabama in Atlanta
Automatic At-Large: #2 Alabama (12-0)
The Crimson Tide had to work very hard but managed to score the game-winning touchdown in the final two minutes to win the Iron Bowl at Auburn (7-5), 26-21. Alabama completed a 12-0 regular season last year and was the consensus #1 team. However, the Tide was upset by Florida in the SEC championship game and was stunned by Utah in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama will want to avoid a similar finish this season.
Alabama’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: SEC Championship Game vs. Florida in Atlanta
Big 12: #3 Texas (12-0)
The Longhorns need a lot of defensive help after allowing Texas A&M (6-6) to look great offensively Thanksgiving night. Fortunately for Texas, Colt McCoy solidified his Heisman candidacy. McCoy was great and the Longhorns emerged from College Station with a hard-fought 49-39 triumph. Texas needs to beat Nebraska (9-3) in Saturday’s Big 12 championship game. If the Longhorns win, they’ll probably be #2 in the final BCS standings and face the Florida/Alabama winner for the national title.
Texas’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: Big 12 Championship Game vs. Nebraska in Arlington
Mountain West: #4 Texas Christian (12-0)
The Horned Frogs are able to celebrate their first-ever 12-0 campaign. TCU started slowly against hapless New Mexico (1-11) but the Frogs showed their superiority by halftime en route to a 51-10 victory. TCU will probably rise to third in the final BCS standings but the Frogs need Texas to lose if they want to play for the national championship.
Texas Christian’s remaining schedule
January: BCS bowl
Big East: #5 Cincinnati (11-0)
The Bearcats showed they have a lot of work to do on defense. A subpar Illinois (3-8) team moved the ball consistently against Cincinnati Friday. Nonetheless, the Bearcats had too many offensive weapons for the Fighting Illini and survived the upset bid, 49-36. This week’s showdown against Pittsburgh has lost a little luster thanks to the Panthers’ 19-16 loss to West Virginia (8-3). Still, Saturday’s winner is the Big East champion and heads to the BCS.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: At Pittsburgh
Western Athletic: #6 Boise State (12-0)
The Broncos won the WAC crown by holding off Nevada (8-4), 44-33, on the blue field in Boise. BSU finishes its regular season at home against New Mexico State (3-9). If the Broncos win and other form holds, they’ll get a BCS at-large spot. For example, BSU fans need to root against Nebraska winning the Big 12 and knocking Texas into the at-large pool. Bronco backers don’t want Pittsburgh beating Cincinnati, claiming the Big East’s automatic berth and sending the Bearcats to the at-large pool. A 12-1 Texas or an 11-1 Cincinnati would probably be selected ahead of BSU for financial reasons. However, if Texas and Cincinnati win Saturday, BCS officials would have to choose a three-loss team like Virginia Tech if they want to overlook the Broncos. That won’t happen.
Boise State’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: Home vs. New Mexico State
Pacific-10: #7 Oregon (9-2)
The Ducks were off last week. Oregon was preparing for the Civil War against #15 Oregon State (8-3). The winner of Thursday’s contest in Eugene will be the Pac-10 winner and play in the Rose Bowl against Ohio State. Oregon State had a chance to win the conference last year but was humbled at home by Oregon. The Beavers will want to avenge that bitter loss and play in their Rose Bowl since 1965.
Oregon’s remaining schedule
Dec. 3: Home vs. Oregon State
Big Ten: #8 Ohio State (10-2)
The Buckeyes enjoyed Thanksgiving and await which team from the state of Oregon will oppose them in Pasadena New Year’s Day.
Ohio State’s remaining schedule
Jan. 1: Rose Bowl in Pasadena
Atlantic Coast: #10 Georgia Tech (10-2)
The Yellow Jackets will enter this week’s conference title game on a down note after falling to visiting Georgia (7-5) for the eighth time in nine tries, 30-24. A late rally wasn’t enough. The good news is Clemson (8-4), GT’s opponent in the ACC championship game, also lost to its instate rival, South Carolina (7-5), last week. GT beat Clemson during the regular season. The question is which team responds better to adversity.
Georgia Tech’s remaining schedule
Dec. 5: ACC Championship Game vs. Clemson in Tampa
At-Large: #11 Penn State (10-2)
The Nittany Lions are still waiting to see if their national following, legendary coach (Joe Paterno) and solid record can earn them a BCS at-large bid. I still say yes.
Penn State’s remaining schedule
January: Bowl game to be announced
The other teams in the at-large pool are:
#9 Iowa (10-2), Big Ten
#12 Pittsburgh (9-2), Big East
#13 Virginia Tech (9-3), ACC
#14 Louisiana State (9-3), SEC
As projected now, the BCS Championship Game would pit Florida against Alabama. Ohio State and Oregon are set for the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would pick Cincinnati to replace the SEC squads.
The Sugar Bowl would then choose Penn State. Since there are now two Big Ten teams, Iowa is ineligible. Since there two SEC teams also, LSU is ineligible. TCU would head for the Orange Bowl. Finally, Boise State comes to the Fiesta Bowl. The BCS game projections for Nov. 29 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Florida vs. Alabama
Rose: Oregon vs. Ohio State
Sugar: Cincinnati vs. Penn State
Fiesta: Texas vs. Boise State
Orange: Texas Christian vs. Georgia Tech
