Sep 22 2008
Data
BCS Game Projections for Dec. 6
Oklahoma, Florida, USC and Virginia Tech earned places in the BCS with wins today. The four teams join Penn State and Cincinnati as major-conference champions. In addition, Utah’s undefeated campaign is certainly enough to earn a berth. Texas’s number-three rating will garner an automatic at-large position, although not a spot in the championship tilt.
Big 12: #1 Oklahoma (12-1)
The Sooners crushed #20 Missouri (9-4), 62-21, in the Big 12 championship game. The Tigers stayed close for a quarter but Oklahoma’s offense was far superior. The Sooners became the first Division I-A team to score at least 60 points in five consecutive games. Since top-ranked Alabama lost today, there are no BCS-conference unbeaten teams left. There’s no reason to drop Oklahoma from second.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 8: BCS Championship Game
Southeastern: #2 Florida (12-1)
The oddsmakers knew something. Installed as a double-digit favorite, the Gators won the SEC Championship game, 31-20, and wrecked top-ranked Alabmaa’s perfect season. Florida quarterback Tim Tebow was the difference. The Gators were fourth in the BCS this week. They might rise to number one but there’s no real difference between first and second in Sunday’s final standings.
Florida’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 8: BCS Championship Game
Automatic At-Large: #3 Texas (11-1)
The Longhorns beat Missouri Oct. 18, 56-31, in Austin. Texas likely would have defeated the Tigers again, had it gotten the opportunity. Instead, Texas will likely have to win the Fiesta Bowl handily, then hope the Associated Press voters decide not to give their trophy to the BCS winner. The last time that happened was in 2003 when USC (AP) and LSU (BCS) split the crown.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 5: Fiesta Bowl
Pacific-10: #4 USC (11-1)
The Trojans weren’t dominating against UCLA (4-8) Saturday. A fumble on the initial drive led to UCLA scoring the game’s first touchdown on a double pass. A USC missed field goal on its second possession made some recall the 2006 upset. However, the Trojan defense was stifling the rest of the way. The offense did enough to win, 28-7, and claim the outright conference title. USC is not one of the two best teams in the nation but another game in the Rose Bowl beckons next month.
USC’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Rose Bowl
Mountain West: #6 Utah (12-0)
The Utes’ waiting is almost done. Sunday night, Utah will officially be in the Sugar Bowl to face Alabama.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 2: Sugar Bowl
Big 10: #8 Penn State (11-1)
The Nittany Lions now know their Rose Bowl opponent. PSU won its first outright Big 10 title since 1995. USC must not take the Lions lightly if it wants to win New Year’s Day.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Rose Bowl
Big East: #12 Cincinnati (11-2)
The Bearcats get two prizes for winning the Big East. The first was a trip to Honolulu this week. Cincinnati rallied to win at Hawaii (7-6), 29-24, late Saturday. Cincinnati has committed to the Orange Bowl in Miami.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Orange Bowl
Atlantic Coast: #25 Virginia Tech (9-4)
For the second year in a row, the Hokies avenged a regular-season loss to #17 Boston College (9-4) by defeating the Eagles in the ACC Championship Game. This time, VT won, 30-12. The Hokies held the ball for nearly 36 minutes and worn down the BC defense. VT will use the same game plan of ball-control offense, hard-nosed defense and superior kicking in hopes of upsetting Big East champ Cincinnati in the Orange Bowl.
Virginia Tech’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Orange Bowl
Eight teams are projected to have guaranteed BCS slots. There are five teams in the at-large pool seeking the final two spots:
#5 Alabama (12-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (11-1, Big 12)
#9 Boise State (12-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Ohio State (10-2, Big 10)
#11 Texas Christian (10-2, Mountain West)
Oklahoma and Florida are headed to the BCS title game. USC and Penn State would face other in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl would get the first choice of replacement and would tab Texas. Texas Tech is then ineligible since two Big 12 are in the BCS. The Sugar Bowl would likely choose Alabama to replace Florida. The Fiesta Bowl would pick Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl would take Utah and Cincinnati would head to the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Dec. 6 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Cincinnati vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar: Alabama vs. Utah
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 29
There were some upsets in the middle of the BCS standings that will affect this week’s projected at-large pool. However, the teams at the top of the rankings won so there shouldn’t be a lot of change.
Southeastern–#1 Alabama (12-0)
The Crimson Tide ended its six-year Iron Bowl losing streak in a big way today. Alabama humbled Auburn (5-7), 36-0. The Tide clearly didn’t look ahead to next week’s SEC title game. Auburn’s defense played well in the first half and kept the game close but the Tigers could never muster a sustained offensive attack.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta vs. Florida (11-1)
Big 12–#2 Oklahoma (11-1)
The Sooners outlasted #12 Oklahoma State (9-3), 61-41, in Stillwater to win the Bedlam Game. Sam Bradford played very well for Oklahoma, throwing for 370 yards. Oklahoma was second in both the Harris and coaches polls last week but trailed Texas in the computer rankings. The Sooners beat a top-15 squad Saturday, which will improve their stock in the BCS’s automated component. Meanwhile, Texas and Texas Tech–both also 11-1–defeated the bottom of the Big 12 South, Texas A&M and Baylor, respectively, both 4-8. Oklahoma lost to Texas but the pollsters clearly believe the Sooners are a better team today than are the Longhorns so they’ll win the tiebreaker tomorrow.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game in Kansas City vs. Missouri (9-3)
Automatic At-Large–#3 Texas (11-1)
The Longhorns smashed rival Texas A&M Thanksgiving night, 49-9, to cap an outstanding season. Texas will rue being unable to tackle Texas Tech receiver Michael Crabtree on the final play of its 39-33 loss in Lubbock. The Longhorns’ consolation prize is probably a date in the Fiesta Bowl, assuming Oklahoma doesn’t lose to Missouri next week.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 5: Fiesta Bowl
Pac-10–#5 USC (10-1)
The Trojans crunched Notre Dame (6-6), 38-3, at home. Meanwhile, USC got the help it needed when Oregon State (8-4) was soundly beaten by visiting Oregon (9-3), 65-38. The Trojans need only beat crosstown rival UCLA at the Rose Bowl next week to win the Pac-10 and earn another appearance at the famed Pasadena stadium New Year’s Day.
USC’s remaining schedule:
Dec. 6: At UCLA (4-7)
Mountain West–#6 Utah (12-0)
The Utes continue to await their fate. Boise State and Ball State completed undefeated regular season this week. Boise State is done at 12-0. Ball State will face Buffalo (8-4) in the Mid-American Conference championship game Dec. 5. Utah played the toughest of the three non-BCS teams and will be aptly rewarded. The Utes will play in the Orange Bowl against the ACC champion.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Orange Bowl
Big 10–#8 Penn State (11-1)
The Nittany Lions still don’t know their Rose Bowl opponent. PSU thought it might get a rematch against Oregon State. The Lions humbled the Beavers in September in Happy Valley, 45-14. Now USC is the likely opponent. Either way, Joe Paterno will bring a solid, disciplined squad to Pasadena.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Rose Bowl
Big East–#13 Cincinnati (10-2)
The Bearcats clinched the conference crown while eating leftovers Friday afternoon when West Virginia (7-4) lost at Pittsburgh (8-3), 19-15. However, Cincinnati dispatched Big East doormat Syracuse (3-9) today, 30-10, to win its tenth game. The Bearcats travel to Hawaii next week before a likely match with either Alabama or Florida in the Sugar Bowl.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule:
Dec. 6: At Hawaii (7-5)
Atlantic Coast–#19 Boston College (9-3)
The Eagles won the ACC Atlantic Division title by squeaking past Maryland (7-5), 28-21. BC’s interception return for a touchdown with 1:43 to play proved to be the winning score. The Eagles will play Coastal Division winner Virginia Tech. BC beat VT at home, 28-23, Oct. 18. The Hokies and Eagles met twice last year as well. BC won the regular-season contest but lost the ACC Championship game in 2007. The Eagles hope history doesn’t repeat in 2008.
Boston College’s remaining schedule:
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game in Tampa vs. Virginia Tech (8-4)
There are eight automatic bids this week, leaving two at-large spots available. The following six teams are in the pool.
#4 Florida (11-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (11-1, Big 12)
#9 Boise State (12-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Ohio State (10-2, Big 10)
#11 Texas Christian (10-2, Mountain West)
#12 Ball State (12-0, Mid-American)
Alabama and Oklahoma are headed to the BCS title game in this projection. USC would face Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would pick Florida to replace Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl would select Texas to replace Oklahoma. The Fiesta Bowl would then choose Ohio State as clearly the most attractive at-large candidate left. The Sugar Bowl would tab Cincinnati, leaving Utah to the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Nov. 29 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: Utah vs. Boston College
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Texas vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 22
Oklahoma’s 65-21 thrashing of Texas Tech tonight will rattle the BCS standings. Penn State is going to the Rose Bowl after its 49-18 thumping of Michigan State. Utah completed its undefeated season and undoubtedly earned an Orange Bowl berth after wearing down Brigham Young, 48-24.
Southeastern: #1 Alabama (11-0)
The Crimson Tide were off Saturday but the day couldn’t have gone any better. Texas Tech, the only other BCS conference unbeaten team, was humbled. Alabama is the clear number-one squad with several one-loss teams fighting for second place. The Tide must not look past Auburn in the Iron Bowl next week even though Florida awaits the SEC title game.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (5-6)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta vs. Florida (10-1)
Big 12: #2 Oklahoma (10-1)
Texas jumped from fifth to first after beating Oklahoma. Texas Tech rose from seventh to second after defeating Texas. It’s clear the pollsters and computers will move Oklahoma from fifth to second after the Sooners smashed Texas Tech (10-1). Before the round-robin began, Oklahoma was rated higher than its southern rivals. The Sooners were too impressive tonight to rate them below an idle Texas. There’s no rest though as Oklahoma State awaits in the annual Bedlam game.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: At Oklahoma State (9-2)
Automatic At-Large: #3 Texas (10-1)
Texas was off today and needed Oklahoma to win to have any chance to play in the Big 21 Championship game. The Longhorns didn’t want the Sooners to win by 44 points though. Texas beat Oklahoma in Dallas but lost to the team Oklahoma just crushed. The last impression will be the strongest. Fortunately, Florida’s 70-19 win against I-AA Citadel won’t impress voters enough to jump the Gators into third. Therefore, Texas keeps a BCS spot.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (4-7)
Big 10: #6 Penn State (11-1)
Michigan State (9-3) must have heard before its game today that Ohio State (10-2) smashed Michigan (3-9), 42-7. The result meant #15 MSU no longer had a chance to go to the Rose Bowl. The Spartans clearly didn’t want to play spoiler and offered a listless effort. Penn State was happy to accept its first Rose Bowl appearance since 1994 after a dominating effort. The Nittany Lions will rue their loss to Iowa. Were they 12-0, they’d be headed to the BCS championship game.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Rose Bowl
Mountain West: #7 Utah (12-0)
The Utes outplayed #14 Brigham Young (10-2) for three quarters but led only by a field goal, 27-24. Utah controlled the fourth period, scoring three unanswered touchdowns. BYU quarterback Max Hall threw five interceptions. Utah has beaten Oregon State, Texas Christian and BYU. Few teams can match the Utes’ three top-25 wins. Certainly not Boise State. The Broncos’ best win came at Oregon. Utah’s big victories all came at home but the Mountain West was a strong league than the WAC this year. There’s no way the Utes will be denied an automatic bid.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Jan. 1: Orange Bowl
Big East: #19 Cincinnati (9-2)
The Bearcats took command of the conference tonight after narrowly escaping with a 28-21 win against #20 Pittsburgh (8-3). Tony Pike threw for 309 yards and three touchdowns for the Bearcats. Cincinnati will win the Big East if it can defeat last-place Syracuse next week. The Bearcats haven’t won an outright league crown since 1964. Syracuse won at Notre Dame (6-5) today so the task might be a little harder than first thought.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: Home vs. Syracuse (3-8)
Dec. 6: At Hawaii (6-5)
Pacific-10: #21 Oregon State (8-3)
The Beavers’ charmed season seemed to be at an end after Justin Kahut missed an extra point with four minutes left to play. OSU trailed host Arizona (6-5), 17-16. The Wildcats could not run out the game and the Beavers got one more chance. A 47-yard pass from Sean Canfield to Sammie Strougher put OSU into field-goal range. Kahut’s kick from 24 yards was true and OSU won, 19-17. If the Beavers beat rival Oregon next week, they’ll go to the Rose Bowl. If they lose, #6 USC (9-1) can go to Pasadena by defeating UCLA (4-6) Dec. 6.
Oregon State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: Home vs. Oregon (8-3)
Atlantic Coast: Boston College (8-3)
Three ACC teams were ranked this week. Again, all three of them–Miami, Maryland and North Carolina–lost. Six teams–three each in the Atlantic and Coastal divisions–have three conference losses. Boston College rallied to beat Wake Forest (6-5), 24-21, in Winston-Salem. The Eagles end the regular season with a home game against Maryland. If BC wins the game, it wins the Atlantic Division.
Boston College’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: Home vs. Maryland (7-4)
With eight teams claiming automatic bids, there are two at-large slots available. Seven teams are projected to be in the at-large pool.
#4 Florida (10-1, SEC)
#5 USC (9-1, Pac-10)
#8 Texas Tech (10-1, Big 12)
#9 Boise State (11-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Ohio State (10-2, Big 10)
#11 Georgia (9-2, SEC)
#12 Missouri (9-2, Big 12)
Alabama and Oklahoma would head to the BCS title game. Penn State would face Oregon State in the Rose Bowl. The Sugar Bowl would choose Florida to replace Alabama, leaving Georgia ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would take Texas in lieu of Oklahoma, rendering Texas Tech and Missouri ineligible. The bowl in Tempe would then choose USC as an at-large. The Sugar would tab Cincinnati and Utah would head to the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Nov. 22 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Orange: Utah vs. Boston College
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 15
No team in the BCS top 10 lost this week. Therefore, there’s no reason to change the rankings. A key game next week pits #2 Texas Tech against #5 Oklahoma. In addition, #7 Utah and #8 Penn State will try to clinch BCS berths with wins next week.
Southeastern: #1 Alabama (11-0)
The Crimson Tide struggled with Mississippi State (3-7) tonight at home before prevailing, 32-7. The Rebels were game but their offense wasn’t good enough to handle Alabama. Special teams plays enabled the Tide to build a lead. The offense started developing a rhythm in the second half and wore down the Rebels. Alabama is off next week and finishes the regular season with the traditional Iron Bowl against Auburn.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (5-6)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta vs. Florida (9-1)
Big 12: #2 Texas Tech (10-0)
The Red Raiders were off today. Texas Tech has two weeks to prepare for its showdown against Oklahoma. The Sooners also have a fortnight to get ready for next week’s contest. Both teams still have visions of championships but the dreams of one side will likely fade by this time next week.
Texas Tech’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Oklahoma (9-1)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Baylor (4-7)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game in Kansas City vs. Missouri (9-2)
Automatic At-Large: #3 Texas (10-1)
The Longhorns smashed Kansas (6-5), 35-7, in Lawrence. Colt McCoy continued his Heisman Trophy campaign with a solid performance. McCoy threw for 255 yards, rushed for 78 more yards and accounted for three touchdowns. Fourth-ranked Florida was very impressive in humbling South Carolina (7-4), 56-6, today but there’s no reason to drop Texas. The Longhorns are off next week before finishing their regular season Thanksgiving night against Texas A&M.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (4-7)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game in Kansas City vs. Missouri (9-2)
Mountain West: #7 Utah (11-0)
The Utes dismantled hapless San Diego State (1-10), 63-14, on the road tonight. Utah clinched a share of the conference championship with the win. The Utes’ second-ever BCS appearance will be clinched next week, if they defeat archrival Brigham Young. A loss means sharing the title with BYU and probably Texas Christian also. A Utah defeat means Boise State, currently 10-0 and ranked ninth, would move to the head of the non-BCS class.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (10-1)
Big 10: #8 Penn State (10-1)
The Nittany Lions needed a half to get going against bottom-feeder Indiana (3-8) today. However, PSU scored 17 third-quarter points to decide the outcome en route to a 34-7 triumph. The win was needed since Ohio State (9-2) and Michigan State both won as well. The Lions will go to the Rose Bowl if they beat MSU in Happy Valley next week. If PSU loses, it’ll likely slide out of the BCS entirely.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: Home vs. Michigan State (9-2)
Big East: #22 Cincinnati (8-2)
The Bearcats squeaked past Louisville (5-5), 28-20, Friday. Cincinnati has a 4-1 conference mark. Pittsburgh and West Virginia (6-3) are each 3-1 in Big East action. Cincinnati defeated West Virginia Nov. 8 and hosts Pittsburgh next week. Pittsburgh, off today, has played neither of the other co-leaders yet. Should the front-runners stumble, Connecticut (7-3) and Rutgers (5-5) are just one game off the pace.
Cincinnati’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: Home vs. Pittsburgh (7-2)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Syracuse (2-8)
Dec. 6: At Hawaii (5-5)
Atlantic Coast: Miami (7-3)
The ACC is still a mess. The conference had three ranked teams this week. All three–North Carolina, Florida State and Wake Forest–lost Saturday. Two teams have fewer than three conference losses. Maryland (7-3) leads the Coastal Division but I’ve put the Terrapins in this spot once already and they lost their next game. So Miami gets the bid this week. The Hurricanes defeated Virginia Tech (6-4), 16-14, Thursday. They have a key Atlantic Division game against Georgia Tech Thursday.
Miami’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 20: At Georgia Tech (7-3)
Nov. 29: At North Carolina State (4-6)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game in Tampa
Pacific-10: Oregon State (7-3)
After dropping their first two games to Stanford (5-6) and Penn State, the Beavers earned their seventh victory in the past eight contests today. OSU dispatched California (6-4), 34-21, at home. Meanwhile, USC (9-1) wore down host Stanford in the fourth quarter and won, 45-23. If the Beavers win their last two games, they’ll earn a Rose Bowl berth. Those games are against the teams that scored a combined 100 points against each other tonight. Oregon beat Arizona, 55-45. OSU faces Arizona next week then Oregon in the traditional Civil War game to end the year.
Oregon State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Arizona (6-4)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Oregon (8-3)
With eight teams guaranteed BCS slots, there are two at-large spots available. The following seven teams are in the pool:
#4 Florida (9-1, SEC)
#5 Oklahoma (9-1, Big 12)
#6 USC (9-1, Pac-10)
#9 Boise State (10-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Georgia (9-2, SEC)
#11 Ohio State (9-2, Big 10)
#12 Missouri (9-2, Big 12)
Penn State and Oregon State would meet in the Rose Bowl. Alabama and Texas Tech are off to the BCS title game. The Sugar Bowl gets the first pick to replace Alabama and picks Florida. Georgia is now ineligible since two SEC teams have already been selected.
The Fiesta Bowl would take Texas to replace Texas Tech. Oklahoma and Missouri would then be ineligible. Next, the Fiesta would pick USC as an at-large rather than Boise State or Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl would tab Cincinnati to face Florida. Utah would be left to battle Miami in the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Nov. 15 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Orange: Utah vs. Miami
Sugar: Florida vs. Cincinnati
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 8
The college football regular season is about three-fourths done. Penn State’s stunning loss at Iowa was the most impactful game on this week’s BCS projections. I predict the Nittany Lions will fall from third to seventh although that’s still good enough for a Rose Bowl bid. Alabama and Texas Tech, the only two BCS-conference teams that are undefeated, are easy choices to be the top two this week.
Southeastern: #1 Alabama (10-0)
The Crimson Tide intercepted LSU quarterback Jarrett Lee four times, including once in overtime, and survived a 27-21 thriller in Baton Rouge. Alabama quarterback John Parker Wilson wasn’t perfect Saturday but he did enough to enable the Tide to clinch the SEC West crown. Two games against downtrodden opponents mark the end of the regular season. Alabama faces Florida, which claimed the SEC East title tonight, for the conference championship next month.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (3-6)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (5-5)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game in Atlanta vs. Florida (8-1)
Big 12: #2 Texas Tech (10-0)
The Red Raiders suffered no ill effects from their week in the sun after beating then-#1 Texas. Texas Tech smashed #9 Oklahoma State (8-2), 56-20, in Lubbock tonight. TTU was consistent, scoring exactly 14 points in each period. The Cowboys stayed close for awhile but their offense couldn’t keep pace with Graham Harrell, Michael Crabtree and company. The Red Raiders are off next week before their showdown at Oklahoma in two weeks.
Texas Tech’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Oklahoma (9-1)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Baylor (3-7)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Automatic At-Large: #3 Texas (9-1)
The Longhorns rebounded nicely after last week’s loss, throttling overmatched Baylor at home, 45-21. Texas should win its last two regular-season gaems, starting with sinking Kansas next week. However, the Longhorns need help from archrival Oklahoma in the form of a win over Texas Tech in order to win the Big 12 South.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At Kansas (6-4)
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (4-6)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Big 10: #7 Penn State (9-1)
The Nittany Lions blew a 23-14 fourth-quarter lead at Iowa (6-4) and lost on a field goal with one second to play, 24-23. I see PSU dropping four spots in the next BCS ranking but I don’t think Utah will pass the Nittany Lions so PSU takes seventh place. PSU is still in control of the Big 10 race. Win the last two games and the Lions are headed to Pasadena.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (3-7)
Nov. 22: At Michigan State (9-2)
Mountain West: #8 Utah (10-0)
The Utes trailed #12 Texas Christian (9-2), 10-0, in the first quarter Thursday. However, Utah’s defense stiffened in the last three period. A nine-yard pass from Brian Johnson to Freddie Evans with 48 seconds left to play gave the Utes their only touchdown but it was enough to win, 13-10, in Salt Lake City. Utah needs a couple of extra days to prepare for last-place San Diego State next week but the key test comes Nov. 22 against archrival BYU.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-9)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (9-1)
Atlantic Coast: #19 North Carolina (7-2)
The Tar Heels are the highest-ranked ACC team so they get the bid. UNC is one of six ACC squads to have two conference losses, which is enough to be tied for first. The Tar Heels had a solid home win today, defeating #20 Georgia Tech (7-3), 28-7. UNC’s biggest remaining test comes next week at Maryland.
North Carolina’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: At Maryland (6-3)
Nov. 22: Home vs. North Carolina State (3-6)
Nov. 29: At Duke (4-5)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Big East: #25 Pittsburgh (7-2)
The Panthers crushed visiting Louisville (5-4), 41-7, Saturday. Pittsburgh joined a three-way tie for first place in the Big East after Cincinnati defeated West Virginia, 26-23, in overtime. Cincinnati blew a 20-7 fourth-quarter lead in Morgantown but scored a touchdown on its extra possession after West Virginia kicked a field goal to begin overtime. All three teams are 3-1 in conference action. Pittsburgh is off next week.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 22: At Cincinnati (7-2)
Nov. 28: Home vs. West Virginia (6-3)
Dec. 6: At Connecticut (6-3)
Pacific-10: Oregon State (6-3)
After struggling to a 3-3 score at halftime, the Beavers wore down UCLA (3-6) in the second half and cruised to a 34-6 win at the Rose Bowl. Coupled with USC’s (8-1) 17-3 victory against California, the Beavers and Trojans are the only Pac-10 teams to have fewer than two conference losses. Oregon State gets the BCS bid this week because the Beavers beat USC, 27-21, Sept. 25. If OSU wins its last three games, it goes to its first Rose Bowl in 40 years.
Oregon State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 15: Home vs. California (6-3)
Nov. 22: At Arizona (6-3)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Oregon (7-3)
There are two remaining BCS slots and the following seven teams are in this week’s projected at-large pool:
#4 Florida (8-1, SEC)
#5 Oklahoma (9-1, Big 12)
#7 USC (8-1, Pac-10)
#9 Boise State (9-0, Western Athletic)
#10 Ohio State (8-2, Big 10)
#11 Georgia (8-2, SEC)
#12 Missouri (8-2, Big 12)
The Sugar Bowl would pick first after losing Alabama to the BCS championship game. Organizers would take Florida, leaving Georgia ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would then choose a replacement for Texas Tech next. Officials would jump at Texas, rendering Oklahoma and Missouri ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would next pick USC as an at-large. The Sugar Bowl would tab Pittsburgh, leaving Utah to face North Carolina in the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Nov. 8 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Texas Tech
Rose: Penn State vs. Oregon State
Orange: Utah vs. North Carolina
Sugar: Florida vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta: Texas vs. USC
BCS Game Projections for Nov. 1
The BCS was shaken tonight after top-ranked Texas was stunned at Texas Tech, 39-33. There will be an argument about which team should be number one in tomorrow’s standings. Aside from tonight’s game, Texas Tech’s schedule has been very weak. The Red Raiders will play Oklahoma State and Oklahoma later this month so they’ll get their chance to prove they deserve to play for the BCS title. For now, I’ll project standings that have don’t have a lot of radical change.
Southeastern: #1 Alabama (9-0)
The Crimson Tide dispatched visiting Arkansas State (4-4), 35-0, Saturday. The game won’t impress anyone, considering the level of the opponent. However, Alabama travels to #19 LSU next week. A win in Baton Rouge would clinch the SEC West and guarantee a spot in the SEC Championship Game for the Tide.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: At LSU (6-2)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (3-6)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (4-5)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game
Big 10: #2 Penn State (9-0)
The Nittany Lions were off Saturday. PSU should be heartened that Michigan State rallied to beat Wisconsin (4-5), 25-24, today. The Spartans are PSU’s last regular-season opponent. A MSU loss would have dropped it out of the top 25 and left the Lions without a quality opponent remaining on their schedule.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: At Iowa (5-4)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (3-6)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Michigan State (8-2)
Automatic At-Large: #3 Oklahoma (8-1)
The Sooners smashed once-proud Nebraska (5-4), 62-28, at home tonight and stayed in the BCS hunt. Oklahoma should handle Texas A&M easily next week and will then have an open date to prepare for top-ten opponents Texas Tech and Oklahoma State.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: At Texas A&M (4-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Texas Tech (8-0)
Nov. 29: At Oklahoma State (8-1)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Pacific-10: #4 USC (7-1)
The Trojans blanked hapless Washington (0-8), 56-0, at home Saturday. The Huskies tried to rally for outgoing coach Tyrone Willingham but they were simply outclassed by USC. The Trojans face California at home next week. The winner will keep at least a share of first place in the Pac-10, although Oregon State (4-3) is still in the picture as well.
USC’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: Home vs. California (6-2)
Nov. 15: At Stanford (5-4)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Notre Dame (5-3)
Dec. 6: At UCLA (3-5)
Big 12: #5 Texas Tech (9-0)
The Red Raiders defeated a number-one team for the first time ever tonight. TTU upset Texas (8-1), 39-33, in front of a standing-only crowd in Lubbock. Texas Tech led 19-0 in the second quarter, 22-6 at the half and 29-13 in the third quarter. However, Longhorn quarterback Colt McCoy rallied his team with three touchdowns in a 14-minute span to gain a 33-32 with 1:29 left to play. Red Raider signal caller Graham Harrell completed a 28-yard touchdown to Michael Crabtree with one second remaining to win the game. There’s no rest for TTU though as Oklahoma State comes to town next week.
Texas Tech’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: Home vs. Oklahoma State (8-1)
Nov. 22: At Oklahoma (8-1)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Baylor (3-6)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Mountain West: #9 Utah (9-0)
The Utes edged host New Mexico (4-6), 13-10, tonight to remain unbeaten. Utah entertains Texas Christian Thursday in a game that could decide the conference title.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 6: Home vs. Texas Christian (9-1)
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-8)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (8-1)
Atlantic Coast: Maryland (6-2)
The Terrapins gained tremendously by not playing this week. Georgia Tech (7-2) upset #15 Florida State at home, 31-28, Saturday. Therefore, Maryland is the only ACC team to have fewer than two conference losses. The Terrapins travel to Virginia Tech Thursday.
Maryland’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 6: At Virginia Tech (5-3)
Nov. 15: Home vs. North Carolina (6-2)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Florida State (6-2)
Nov. 29: At Boston College (5-3)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Big East: West Virginia (6-2)
The Mountaineers won a big game at Connecticut (6-3) today, 35-13. WVU has struggled on the road but senior quarterback Pat White played expertly. The Mountaineers remained undefeated in conference action. WVU hosts Cincinnati next week. The Bearcats have only one Big East loss.
West Virginia’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: Home vs. Cincinnati (6-2)
Nov. 22: At Louisville (5-3)
Nov. 28: At Pittsburgh (6-2)
Dec. 6: Home vs. South Florida (6-3)
Two at-large berths are available. The following teams are in the pool based their projected BCS positions.
#6 Texas (8-1, Big 12)
#7 Florida (7-1, SEC)
#8 Oklahoma State (8-1, Big 12)
#10 Boise State (9-0, Western Athletic)
#11 Ohio State (7-2, Big 10)
#12 Texas Christian (8-1, Mountain West)
Texas, Oklahoma State and TCU are ineligible due to conference quotas. The Sugar Bowl would choose Florida to replace Alabama, which is headed to the BCS title game. The Rose Bowl would happily select Ohio State to replace Penn State and preserve the traditional Big 10 vs. Pac-10 matchup.
The Fiesta Bowl wouldn’t want to pick Oklahoma for a rematch with Texas Tech. Boise State was in the Fiesta Bowl two years ago. That leaves West Virginia as the choice. The Sugar Bowl would quickly scoop the Sooners. Utah would then head to the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Nov. 1 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Alabama vs. Penn State
Rose: USC vs. Ohio State
Orange: Utah vs. Maryland
Sugar: Oklahoma vs. Florida
Fiesta: Texas Tech vs. West Virginia
BCS Game Projections for Oct. 25
There were some great games this week but no major upsets. The only top-ten teams to lose Saturday–Oklahoma State and Ohio State–lost to #1 Texas and #3 Penn State, respectively. Therefore, there won’t likely be much change in the BCS standings that will be officially updated Sunday afternoon.
Big 12: #1 Texas (8-0)
The Longhorns squeaked past #6 Oklahoma State, 28-24, in Austin today. Cowboy quarterback Zac Randolph played well but Texas signal caller Colt McCoy continued his march toward the Heisman Trophy. Texas must play at #8 Texas Tech next week.
Texas’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: at Texas Tech (8-0)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Baylor (3-5)
Nov. 15: at Kansas (5-3)
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (3-5)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Southeastern: #2 Alabama (8-0)
The Crimson Tide wore down Tennessee (3-5) in the second half and triumphed, 29-9, in Knoxville. The road win was a good sign for Alabama as the Tide played strongly in the second half tonight. After a tuneup next week with Arkansas State, Alabama coach Nick Saban returns to LSU in two weeks for the first time since he left the school to coach the Miami Dolphins.
Alabama’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: Home vs. Arkansas State (4-3)
Nov. 8: At Louisiana State (5-2)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (3-5)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (4-4)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game
Big 10: #3 Penn State (9-0)
The Nittany Lions won at #9 Ohio State (7-2) tonight for the first time since 1978, 13-6. Thirteen points doesn’t seem like much but PSU hadn’t scored more than 10 points in any of its last seven visits to Columbus. Buckeye freshman quarterback Terrelle Pryor has the physical tools to be a great collegiate player one day but he committed two fourth-quarter turnovers. His fumble on a third-and-one run enabled the Lions to get good field position and rally from a 6-3 deficit. His interception in the PSU end zone in the last minute sealed the win for the Lions. PSU is off next week and travels to Iowa Nov. 8.
Penn State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 8: At Iowa (5-3)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (3-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Michigan State (7-2)
Automatic At-Large: #4 Oklahoma (7-1)
For most of the first half today against host Kansas State (4-4), the Sooners looked awesome. They registered 55 points, a school record for one half. During the second half, Oklahoma was ordinary. The Sooners tallied just three points. Oklahoma won, 58-35, and will keep its top-four position and accompanying BCS berth. Next week, Oklahoma hosts Nebraska. The OU-NU game was once of the most anticipated contests of the season. The Cornhuskers must improve substantially for the rivalry to regain a lofty status.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: Home vs. Nebraska (5-3)
Nov. 8: At Texas A&M (3-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Texas Tech (8-0)
Nov. 29: At Oklahoma State (7-1)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Pacific-10: #5 USC (6-1)
The Trojans outlasted Arizona (5-3), 17-10, in Tucson Saturday. The game was a defensive struggle. A questionable official’s ruling gave the Trojans the only touchdown of the first half. USC’s defense was strong throughout the evening. USC hosts winless Washington next week.
USC’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: Home vs. Washington (0-7)
Nov. 8: Home vs. California (5-2)
Nov. 15: At Stanford (4-4)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Notre Dame (5-2)
Dec. 6: At UCLA (3-5)
Mountain West: #11 Utah (8-0)
The Utes were off this week. Utah will probably rise to 10th in tomorrow’s BCS standings after Ohio State’s loss to Penn State. I think Oklahoma State will remain ahead of the Utes despite the loss to Texas today. Nonetheless, Utah is in position for a BCS berth. The Utes host #14 Texas Christian Nov. 6. The two teams are the only MWC squads without a conference loss. First though, Utah must play at New Mexico next Saturday.
Utah’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: At New Mexico (4-5)
Nov. 6: Home vs. Texas Christian (8-1)
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-6)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (7-1)
Atlantic Coast: #25 Florida State (6-1)
The Seminoles got a key conference win today at home against Virginia Tech (5-3), 30-20. Coupled with Georgia Tech’s surprising home loss to Virginia (5-3), 24-17, FSU will likely be the only ACC squad ranked in tomorrow’s BCS standings. If the Seminoles are to play in the BCS though, they’ll have to do well in the upcoming six-week stretch. The gauntlet begins next week in Atlanta against Georgia Tech.
Florida State’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: At Georgia Tech (6-2)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Clemson (3-4)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Boston College (5-2)
Nov. 22: At Maryland (6-2)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Florida (6-1)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Big East: West Virginia (5-2)
The Big East is a mess. The conference’s two ranked teams lost. Pittsburgh fell to Rutgers (3-5), 54-34. South Florida dropped a 24-20 decision to Louisville. WVU is the only Big East team without a conference loss; therefore, the Mountaineers get the BCS bid. WVU had a solid home win Thursday. The Mountaineers scored the last 31 points to defeat Auburn (4-4), 34-17. WVU plays at Connecticut next week.
West Virginia’s remaining schedule:
Nov. 1: At Connecticut (6-2)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Cincinnati (5-2)
Nov. 22: At Louisville (5-2)
Nov. 28: At Pittsburgh (5-2)
Dec. 6: Home vs. South Florida (6-2)
There are eight teams projected to have automatic BCS berths, leaving two at-large spots available. The following six teams are likely to be in the at-large pool tomorrow.
#6 Georgia (7-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (8-0, Big 12)
#8 Florida (6-1, SEC)
#9 Oklahoma State (7-1, Big 12)
#11 Boise State (7-0, Western Athletic)
#12 Ohio State (7-2, Big 10)
BCS rules allow for one non-BCS within the top 12 to have an automatic slot. Any other qualifying teams must go to the at-large pool. Utah was one place ahead of Boise State last week and I project the Utes will remain ahead of the Broncos tomorrow. Thanks to LSU’s loss to Georgia today and with Texas Christian currently at number 14, I think OSU will slide into the 12th position just ahead of the Horned Frogs.
If the BCS Championship Game didn’t exist, the major bowl matchups would be:
Rose: Big 10 vs. Pac-10
Fiesta: Big 12 vs. At-Large
Orange: ACC vs. At-Large
Sugar: SEC vs. At-Large
The Big East champ would be guaranteed one of the three at-large spots. The BCS title game claims the top two teams in the final standings–to be released Dec. 7. The bowls that lose their “anchor” teams are allowed to choose replacements. Since Texas is number one this week, the Fiesta Bowl would pick first. Undoubtedly, bowl officials would pick Oklahoma, leaving Texas Tech and Oklahoma State ineligible for selection since no more than two teams from any conference may play in the BCS. The Sugar Bowl, having lost #2 Alabama to the title game, would pick next. Georgia plays Florida this week and a lot will be determined then. For now, I’ll put Georgia in the Sugar Bowl. That means Florida is out of the pool.
The Fiesta Bowl picks again. Ohio State has the biggest national following of the remaining teams on the board so the Buckeyes are the choice. The Sugar Bowl chooses next and selects West Virginia. Utah is left for the Orange Bowl to face Florida State. The BCS game projections for Oct. 25 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Utah vs. Florida State
Sugar: Georgia vs. West Virginia
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Oct. 18
Most of the top 10 won this week. Only #9 BYU lost. Florida, rated fifth, was off today. The Bowl Championship Series rankings will be released Sunday but, considering the lack of upsets, I’m confident in the projections for this week.
Big 12–#1 Texas (7-0):
The Longhorns crushed #11 Missouri (5-2), 56-31, tonight. Texas led, 35-3, at halftime and traded scores during the second half. The Longhorns look strong and will be a near-unanimous number-one team tomorrow. Texas’s gauntlet continues next week against #8 Oklahoma State.
Texas’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Oklahoma State (7-0)
Nov. 1: At Texas Tech (7-0)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Baylor (3-4)
Nov. 15: At Kansas (5-2)
Nov. 27: Home vs. Texas A&M (2-5)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Southeastern–#2 Alabama (7-0):
The Crimson Tide was fortunate today. After building a 24-3 halftime lead at home against Mississippi (3-4), Alabama did not score in the second half. The Rebels closed to within 24-20 but couldn’t score on their last possession and Alabama escaped with the win. Style points matter though so expect the Tide to lose some ground in the polls, especially considering the impressive wins from Texas and Penn State. Except for next month’s game against LSU, Alabama will be heavily favored the rest of the regular season.
Alabama’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Tennessee (3-4)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Arkansas State (3-4)
Nov. 8: At Louisiana State (5-1)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Mississippi State (2-5)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Auburn (4-3)
Dec. 6: SEC Championship Game
Big 10–#3 Penn State (8-0):
The Nittany Lions needed a half to get going against Michigan (2-5). PSU trailed at Happy Valley in the second quarter, 17-7, and at the break, 17-14. The second half was all PSU though. The Lions scored the game’s last 39 points and won convincingly, 46-17. WIth the victory, PSU broke a nine-game head-to-head winning streak for the Wolverines. The biggest game of the season comes next week at Ohio State.
Penn State’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Ohio State (7-1)
Nov. 8: At Iowa (5-3)
Nov. 15: Home vs. Indiana (2-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Michigan State (6-2)
Automatic At-Large–#4 Oklahoma (6-1):
The Sooners rebounded well from last week’s defeat by outscoring #16 Kansas (5-2), 45-31, at home. Oklahoma will remain in fourth place, especially considering #5 Florida (5-1) was off today. Therefore, the Sooners claim a BCS berth. Oklahoma should reach 9-1 quite easily before two tussles to end the year. The Sooners need plenty of help from Texas to play in the Big 12 title game.
Oklahoma’s remaining schedule:
Oct. 25: At Kansas State (4-3)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Nebraska (4-3)
Nov. 8: At Texas A&M (2-5)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Texas Tech (7-0)
Nov. 29: At Oklahoma State (7-0)
Dec. 6: Big 12 Championship Game
Pacific-10–#6 USC (5-1):
The Trojans did not look past hapless Washington State (1-7) today. USC was nearly perfect in the first half en route to a 41-0 lead. The Trojans reserves played well in the second half and the Cougars’ streak of scoring in 288 consecutive games was over. USC won, 69-0. Coupled with California’s (4-2) loss tonight at Arizona (5-2), no team in the Pac-10 is unbeaten. Five teams have one conference loss and four of them are 3-1 in the league. Of that group, USC is the highest-rated so the Trojans are projected into the BCS this week. A lot will be decided next week when USC travels to Arizona.
USC’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: At Arizona (5-2)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Washington (0-6)
Nov. 8: Home vs. California (4-2)
Nov. 15: At Stanford (4-4)
Nov. 29: Home vs. Notre Dame (4-2)
Dec. 6: At UCLA (3-4)
Mountain West–#14 Utah (8-0):
Brigham Young’s loss Thursday to Texas Christian leaves the BCS door open for the Utes. Utah thrashed Colorado State (3-4), 49-16, today. Utah will likely be in the top 12 in tomorrow’s BCS standings, thanks to losses by BYU and Missouri this week. However, thanks to the low ratings of the Big East and ACC, 14th is good enough for Utah to get a BCS slot. The Utes have two weeks to prepare for their next game, at New Mexico.
Utah’s remaining schedule
Nov. 1: At New Mexico (4-4)
Nov. 6: Home vs. Texas Christian (7-1)
Nov. 15: At San Diego State (1-6)
Nov. 22: Home vs. Brigham Young (6-1)
Big East–#23 Pittsburgh (5-1):
The Panthers raced past the Naval Academy (4-3) in the second half to defeat the Midshipman, 42-21, at Annapolis today. Pittsburgh has won five straight after a disappointing loss to Bowling Green (3-4) in the season opener. The Panthers are tied for first in the Big East with West Virginia (4-2) at 2-0 but Pittsburgh is the higher-ranked team. South Florida (6-1) is the highest-rated team in the conference, according to this week’s AP poll but the Bulls are in fourth place in the Big East and lost at home to Pittsburgh Oct. 2. The Panthers get the BCS spot.
Pittsburgh’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Rutgers (2-5)
Nov. 1: At Notre Dame (4-2)
Nov. 8: Home vs. Louisville (4-2)
Nov. 22: At Cincinnati (5-1)
Nov. 28: Home vs. West Virginia (4-2)
Dec. 6: At Connecticut (5-2)
Atlantic Coast–Georgia Tech (6-1):
The ACC is a mess. The conference had three ranked teams entering play today. All of them–#17 Virginia Tech, #18 North Carolina and #21 Wake Forest–lost to unranked conference foes. Seven ACC teams have one conference loss and no team is unbeaten in ACC play. Georgia Tech is the only 3-1 team; therefore, the Yellow Jackets get the BCS bid this week. The Yellow Jackets had a solid win today at Clemson, 21-17.
Georgia Tech’s remaining schedule
Oct. 25: Home vs. Virginia (4-3)
Nov. 1: Home vs. Florida State (5-1)
Nov. 8: At North Carolina (5-2)
Nov. 20: Home vs. Miami (4-3)
Nov. 29: At Georgia (6-1)
Dec. 6: ACC Championship Game
Eight teams are projected to have automatic BCS spots this week, leaving two at-large positions. I predict Louisiana State will be in the BCS top 12 so six teams in the at-large pool.
#5 Florida (5-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (7-0, Big 12)
#8 Oklahoma State (7-0, Big 12)
#10 Georgia (6-1, SEC)
#12 Ohio State (7-1, Big 10)
#13 LSU (5-1, SEC)
Texas Tech and Oklahoma State are immediately out since Texas and Oklahoma have guaranteed positions. The Fiesta Bowl pick Oklahoma to replace Texas, which is off to the championship game. The Sugar Bowl needs to replace Alabama. Bowl officials will probably want LSU if at all possible so the Tigers go to New Orleans, leaving Florida and Georgia ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would next select Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl would take Pittsburgh, leaving Utah to face Georgia Tech. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Oct. 18 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Utah vs. Georgia Tech
Sugar: LSU vs. Pittsburgh
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Oct. 12
Big 12–#1 Texas (6-0):
The Longhorns won the Red River Rivalry for the third time in four years, besting Oklahoma, 45-35, in Dallas. Texas was ranked fifth at the time and no top-four team won. So 39 of the 65 voters gave Texas the top spot this week. In reality, second is as good as first since both teams will play for the BCS title. However, being considered the best squad has to feel good. There’s no rest for the Longhorns though as they face #11 Missouri Saturday. The Tigers were upset at home by Oklahoma State yesterday, 28-23, and will want to get on track again.
Southeastern–#2 Alabama (6-0):
The Crimson TIde must be wondering what happened. The regular season is 15 weeks long. Most Division 1-A teams play 12 games. Therefore, there will be byes during the season. Alabama had no idea an off week could be so costly as only 26 voters decided to move the TIde to the top spot. Therefore, Alabama remains in second place nationally but still atop the SEC. The Tide hosts Mississippi (3-3) Saturday. The Rebels defeated #5 Florida in Gainesville so they are certainly capable of playing well.
Big 10–#3 Penn State (7-0):
The Nittany Lions throttled host Wisconsin (3-3), 48-7, last night and rose three places in the AP poll. PSU plays conference co-leader #12 Ohio State next week but must first defeat Michigan (2-4) Saturday. The Wolverines are struggling mightily under new coach Rich Rodriguez but the Lions have been dominated by Michigan this decade.
Automatic At-Large–#4 Oklahoma (5-1):
The Sooners jumped to an early 11-point lead against Texas and held a 35-30 fourth-quarter advantage. Oklahoma could not finish the game successfully and could not maintain its place at number one. Fortunately for OU fans, pollsters kept the Sooners in the top four with three conference leaders ahead of them. Therefore, Oklahoma is guaranteed a BCS bid in this week’s projection. The Sooners host #16 Kansas (5-1) Saturday.
Pacific-10–#6 USC (4-1):
The Trojans shut out reeling Arizona State (2-4), 28-0, and stayed in contention for the Pac-10 championship. USC must avoid an Oregon State-type letdown Saturday when it travels to conference doormat Washington State (1-6).
Mountain West–#9 Brigham Young (6-0):
The Cougars are forgetting that the BCS is about style as much as it’s about substance. Crushing UCLA (2-4), 59-0, last month garnered attention. A workmanlike 21-3 win against New Mexico (3-4) yesterday didn’t curry any favor. That’s why BYU has lost ground in the poll the past two weeks. The Cougars have a chance for a marquee win Thursday though when they travel to Texas Christian (6-1), a once-ranked team that has lost only to Oklahoma.
Atlantic Coast–#17 Virginia Tech (5-1):
The season-opening loss at East Carolina (3-3) is looking worse by the week after ECU lost its third consecutive game yesterday. The Hokies were off last week and will play Saturday at Boston College (4-1).
Big East–#19 South Florida (5-1): By the time the Bulls play once-proud Syracuse (1-5) this week, they will have had 16 days to get over their upset loss to #24 Pittsburgh (4-1) to start conference action. USF can’t realistically expect to lose another game and still win the conference. The Bulls are lucky to host the Orange Saturday. The new movie, The Express, featuring Syracuse legend Ernie Davis, will remind people that Syracuse once really did have a good football team.
There are six teams in the at-large pool this week, although the three Big 12 teams aren’t eligible to be picked because Texas and Oklahoma already have the conference’s two tickets.
#5 Florida (5-1, SEC)
#7 Texas Tech (6-0, Big 12)
#8 Oklahoma State (6-0, Big 12)
#10 Georgia (5-1, SEC)
#11 Missourl (5-1, Big 12)
#12 Ohio State (6-1, Big 10)
The Fiesta Bowl would choose first to replace Texas because the Longhorns are slated for the BCS title game. Organizers would quickly grab Oklahoma even though the Sooners are becoming a Tempe staple. The Sugar Bowl would get the next pick since anchor Alabama is headed to the championship game. Officials would happily nab Florida, leaving Georgia ineligible.
The Fiesta Bowl would then pick an opponent for Oklahoma and would select Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl would next choose South Florida to face Florida, leaving BYU to play against Virginia Tech in the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Oct. 12 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Texas vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Brigham Young vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar: Florida vs. South Florida
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Oct. 5
Of last week’s Associated Press Top 10, only #10 South Florida lost. LSU, ranked third, was off. The other eight teams won and most of them won easily. Not much movement was needed, however, to change this week’s BCS projections. I’ll begin with the automatic bids.
Big 12–#1 Oklahoma (5-0): The Sooners opened conference play yesterday with a 49-17 trouncing of Baylor (2-3). Oklahoma travels to neutral Dallas to play #5 Texas Saturday in what is easily the biggest game of the day.
Southeastern–#2 Alabama (6-0): At least the Crimson Tide won. Defeating Kentucky (4-1), 17-14, at home cost Alabama some first-place votes in the AP poll but the Tide remains second. Alabama is off this week before hosting Mississippi (3-3) Oct. 18.
Automatic At-Large–#3 Missouri (5-0): The Tigers won in Lincoln for the first time since 1978, crushing host Nebraska (3-2), 52-17. Coupled with LSU’s bye, Missouri was able to leapfrog LSU into third place. Since the top two teams are conference leaders, Missouri claims an automatic BCS berth. Missouri hosts #17 Oklahoma State (5-0) Saturday.
Big 10–#6 Penn State (6-0): The Nittany Lions traveled to West Layafette, Indiana yesterday and dispatched Purdue, 20-6. PSU plays at Wisconsin (3-2) this week. The Badgers were in the top 10 last week but consecutive losses to Michigan (2-3) and #12 Ohio State have left them at 0-2 in conference play. Wisconsin must win every Big 10 game the rest of the way and get help to win the conference title they were favored before the year to claim. PSU should expect Wisconsin’s best effort.
Pacific-10–#8 USC (3-1): Apparently, Oregon (3-2) was worthy of the Trojans’ attention for most of three quarters. USC trailed, 10-3, in the second period before smashing the Ducks, 44-10. The Trojans tallied 41 unanswered points. USC hosts reeling Arizona State (2-3) Saturday. The Sun Devils were in the top 15 before losing their last three contests.
Mountain West–#9 Brigham Young (5-0): The Cougars handled Utah State (1-4), 34-14, Friday. BYU hosts New Mexico (3-3) Saturday. The Cougars must travel to Texas Christian (5-1) five days later but can’t look past a Lobo squad that beat Arizona (4-1) last month.
Atlantic Coast–#18 Virginia Tech (5-1): The Hokies beat Western Kentucky, 27-13 (2-4), yesterday. VT is off this week before playing at Boston College (4-1) Oct. 18. The Hokies do not play #20 Wake Forest (3-1) during the regular season although the teams could meet in the ACC Championship Game Dec. 6.
Big East–#19 South Florida (5-1): The Bulls suffered a surprising home loss to Pittsburgh (4-1), 26-21, Thursday and slipped nine places. Thanks in part to Connecticut’s (5-1) 38-12 defeat against North Carolina (4-1), the Bulls remain the top-ranked team in a struggling conference. USF is off this week and will host Syracuse (1-4) Oct. 18.
There are six teams in the at-large pool seeking two available spots this week:
#4 LSU (4-0, SEC)
#5 Texas (5-0, Big 12)
#7 Texas Tech (5-0, Big 12)
#10 Georgia (4-1, SEC)
#11 Florida (4-1, SEC)
#12 Ohio State (5-1, Big 10)
The BCS Championship game pits Oklahoma against Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl, not allowed to choose Texas or Texas Tech because Missouri is guaranteed the Big 12’s second BCS bid, decides to take the Tigers as a replacement for Oklahoma. Missouri has quarterback Chase Daniel and a great story but Tiger fans are not known to travel as well as Longhorn fans.
The Sugar Bowl would happily choose LSU to replace Alabama, leaving Georgia and Florida ineligible. The Fiesta Bowl would then pick Ohio State to face Missouri. The Sugar Bowl next chooses USF to face Virginia Tech, leaving BYU for the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Oct. 5 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose: USC vs. Penn State
Orange: BYU vs. Virginia Tech
Sugar: LSU vs. South Florida
Fiesta: Missouri vs. Ohio State
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 28
A handful of big upsets this week forced several changes in the BCS game projections. The first BCS standings will be released Oct. 19. I’ll use those standings and conference records starting then. Until then, I’ll continue to base my projections on the most recent Associated Press poll.
Big 12: #1 Oklahoma (4-0) The Sooners smashed Texas Christian (4-1), 35-10, yesterday. As the only top-four team to win Saturday, Oklahoma is the clear team to reach the top spot, although a third of the voters chose Alabama. The Sooners open conference play this week at Baylor (2-2). Oklahoma must not look ahead to next week’s showdown with #5 Texas.
Southeastern: #2 Alabama (5-0) The Crimson Tide shocked Georgia en route to a 31-0 halftime lead. The Bulldogs rallied in the second half but Alabama’s grip on the game was never seriously threatened as the Tide won, 41-30. Alabama, with coach Nick Saban and senior quarterback John Parker Wilson, seems poised to challenge for its first national title since 1993. The Crimson Tide hosts Kentucky (4-0) Saturday.
Automatic At-Large: #3 Louisiana State (4-0) The reigning national champions struggled at home against lightly-regarded Mississippi State before prevailing, 34-24. Style points are important to pollsters so Alabama’s road win against Georgia was enough to slot the Tide ahead of the Tigers. LSU is an at-large team ranked third so it gets an automatic BCS berth. That also means #4 Missouri doesn’t get an automatic bid. Only one is available under this rule. LSU will get its chance against Alabama in November. The Tigers are off this week. They’ll play at #12 Florida Oct. 11.
Big 10: #6 Penn State (5-0) The Nittany Lions’ 45-14 dismantling of Oregon State two weeks ago looks more impressive after the Beavers defeating then-#1 USC Thursday. PSU defeated then-#22 Illinois (2-2), 38-24. Thanks also to Wisconsin’s shocking loss to Michigan, PSU is the top-ranked team in the Big 10 and gets the conference’s BCS bid this week. The Nittany Lions travel to high-powered Purdue (2-2) Saturday.
Mountain West: #8 Brigham Young (4-0) The Cougars had a bye yesterday but still rose three places due to the large number of upsets. BYU travels to Utah State (1-3) Friday.
Pac-10: #9 USC (2-1) The Trojans lost at Oregon State (2-2) for the third time in four tries. USC sank to a 21-0 halftime deficit and its furious comeback fell short, 27-21. The Trojans must regroup this week at home against #23 Oregon (4-1).
Big East: #10 South Florida (5-0) The Bulls completed their non-conference slate with a 41-10 thrashing of North Carolina State (2-3). USF begins Big East action Thursday at home against up-and-down Pittsburgh (3-1). The Panthers can be very good and very bad. They don’t even know when “Good Pitt” and “Bad Pitt” will emerge. The Bulls hope to continue climbing the rankings
Atlantic Coast: #25 Wake Forest (3-1) The Demon Deacons lost at home to the Naval Academy (3-2), 24-17. Great win for Navy but Wake Forest is a more talented team playing at home. Championship-level squads win that game. The Demon Deacons are off this week before hosting #20 Clemson (3-2) Oct. 9.
Five teams are in the at-large positions this week; however, the two SEC aren’t eligible to be chosen since Alabama and LSU are guaranteed positions.
#4 Missouri (4-0, Big 12)
#5 Texas (4-0, Big 12)
#7 Texas Tech (4-0, Big 12)
#11 Georgia (4-1, SEC)
#12 Florida (3-1, SEC)
Oklahoma and Alabama would play in the BCS Championship Game. USC would face Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The Fiesta Bowl, needing to replace Oklahoma, would choose Texas, thereby making Missouri and Texas Tech ineligible. The Sugar Bowl would happily tab LSU to replace Alabama. The Fiesta Bowl would choose USF, leaving BYU to the Sugar Bowl. The Orange Bowl would need an opponent for Wake Forest but there are no teams left to pick. Therefore, the next four teams in the poll become eligible:
#13 Auburn (4-1, SEC)
#14 Ohio State (4-1, Big 10)
#15 Utah (5-0, Mountain West)
#16 Kansas (3-1, Big 12)
Due to conference quotas, Auburn, Utah and Kansas aren’t eligible. Therefore, OSU goes to the Orange Bowl. The BCS game projections for Sept. 28 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Oklahoma vs. Alabama
Rose: Penn State vs. USC
Orange: Ohio State vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Louisiana State vs. Brigham Young
Fiesta: Texas vs. South Florida
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 21
There wasn’t a lot of movement in the top 10 this week. Only Auburn lost and the Tigers lost to fellow top-ten and SEC rival LSU. Therefore, there isn’t a lot of change in the BCS projections this week.
Pacific-10: #1 USC (2-0): The Trojans were off Saturday. USC will play at Oregon State (1-2) Thursday in its conference opener. I like USC’s schedule so far. Starting Aug. 30 with their first game, the Trojans had 14 days off before their second game, 12 days before their third game, and nine days before their fourth game. I wonder if they’ll play any differently later in the season when they don’t have 10 days between contests.
Big 12: #2 Oklahoma (3-0): The Sooners had a bye last week. They’ll host #24 Texas Christian (4-0) Saturday. Oklahoma’s schedule isn’t the most difficult. The Sooners play Texas in Dallas Oct. 11 but they play Kansas and Texas Tech at home. The hardest road game on paper is probably Oklahoma State in November.
Southeastern: #3 Georgia (4-0): The Bulldogs traveled to Tempe and disposed of Arizona State (2-2), 27-10, Saturday. There’s no rest for Georgia though as #8 Alabama visits Athens this week. The SEC started to sort itself last week and the process will continue into December.
Automatic At-Large: #4 Florida (3-0): The Gators trounced Tennessee (1-2) in Knoxville, 30-6, last week. Tim Tebow showed he’s a better passer now than he was last season. Florida hosts Mississippi (2-2) Saturday.
Big 10: #9 Wisconsin (3-0): The Badgers were off last week before they start conference action. Wisconsin travels to rebuilding Michigan (1-2) Saturday. The Badgers might be tempted to look past this week because home dates with #14 Ohio State (3-1) and #12 Penn State follow.
Mountain West: #11 Brigham Young (4-0): The Cougars began their conference slate by smashing Wyoming (2-2), 44-0, yesterday. BYU is off this week. The Cougars travel to Utah State (1-3) Oct. 3. The Aggies’ record isn’t great but their losses have come to surprisingly good UNLV (3-1), then-#18 Oregon (3-1) and #20 Utah (4-0). Utah St. will play hard against its in-state rival.
Big East: #13 South Florida (3-0): The Bulls squeaked past a game Florida International squad (0-3), 17-9, Saturday. Pollsters were not impressed and dropped USF one place. The Bulls play their last non-conference game this week. USF travels to North Carolina State (2-2), which defeated #23 East Carolina (3-1) at home yesterday.
Atlantic Coast: #16 Wake Forest (3-0): The Demon Deacons defeated Florida State (2-1), 12-3, in a hard-fought contest last week. Following the win in Tallahassee, the Demon Deacons host the Naval Academy (2-2) Saturday.
There are six potential at-large teams looking for two spots.
#5 Louisiana State (3-0, SEC)
#6 Missouri (4-0, BIg 12)
#7 Texas (3-0, Big 12)
#8 Alabama (4-0, SEC)
#10 Texas Tech (4-0, Big 12)
#12 Penn State (4-0, Big 10)
Since Georgia and Florida are guaranteed BCS slots, LSU and Alabama aren’t eligible. The Rose Bowl must replace USC, which heads to the championship game. Texas was a tremendous draw there a few years ago so the Longhorns will be picked again. This choice leaves Missouri and Texas Tech ineligible.
The Fiesta Bowl must replace Oklahoma, which is slated for the championship game. Florida, featuring Tebow, is the best team on the board and is the pick. Now the Fiesta Bowl chooses an opponent for Florida. Penn State is the only at-large still available so the Nittany Lions are the choice ahead of USF and BYU.
The Sugar Bowl would likely choose USF, leaving BYU to the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections of Sept. 21 are as follows:
BCS Championship: USC vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Texas vs. Wisconsin
Orange: Brigham Young vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Georgia vs. South Florida
Fiesta: Florida vs. Penn State
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 14
USC became a clear favorite to reach the BCS Championship Game after its 35-3 thrashing of Ohio State. Otherwise, the BCS remains muddled. I’ll start with the eight teams earning automatic bids this week, based on today’s Associated Press poll. Rankings listed are from today’s poll. For instance, I refer to Ohio State as #13, not #5–last week’s ranking.
Pacific-10: #1 USC (2-0): The Trojans did what they’ve done the past several years under coach Pete Carroll, win a big game. After a sluggish start, USC handled #13 Ohio State (1-1) easily at the L.A. Coliseum. The question for the Trojans will be whether or not they beat themselves in a game or two, like they did last year against Stanford. USC is off this week. USC’s next game is Sept. 25 at Oregon State (1-2).
Big 12: #2 Oklahoma (3-0): The Sooners throttled hapless Washington (3-0) in Seattle, 55-14, Saturday. Oklahoma has looked great against inferior competition. The Sooners are off this week. They’ll host Texas Christian (3-0) Sept. 27. TCU will be the best team Oklahoma has played so far in 2008.
Southeastern: #3 Georgia (3-0): All coaches will tell you any conference road win is a good win. However, pollsters didn’t appreciate the Bulldogs’ 14-7 victory at South Carolina (1-2) Saturday. Georgia slipped out of the BCS title game this week. The Bulldogs travel to Arizona State (2-1) Saturday. The Sun Devils were ranked 15th last week but suffered an crushing overtime loss to UNLV (2-1) 23-20, yesterday. ASU probably looked ahead to the Georgia game but expect a strong effort in a big game.
Automatic At-Large: #4 Florida (2-0): The Gators were off yesterday and maintained their spot in the poll. Their top-four place is enough for an automatic BCS bid. Florida travels to Tennessee (1-1) Saturday in a contest between traditional rivals.
Big 10: #8 Wisconsin (3-0): The Badgers went to the Central Valley of California yesterday and defeated #25 Fresno State (1-1), 13-10, Coupled with Ohio State’s loss, Wisconsin is now the Big 10 leader and gets the conference’s automatic BCS berth. The Badgers are off Saturday. They’ll open conference play Sept. 27 at slumping Michigan (1-2).
Big East: #12 South Florida (3-0): The Bulls squeaked past #19 Kansas (2-1), 37-34, in Tampa Friday. USF let a big early lead get away but scored last to take the win. The Bulls travel to Florida International (0-2) Saturday. Coincidentally, FIU lost at Kansas, 40-10, Aug. 30.
Mountain West: #14 Brigham Young (3-0): The Cougars lost ground in the poll after their controversial one-point against Washington Sept. 6. They gained ground today after crushing UCLA, 59-0, yesterday. The Bruins suffered their worst defeat since 1929. BYU slipped behind Big East leader USF. However, the Cougars eased past East Carolina and remained ahead of ACC leader Wake Forest to regain their BCS berth.
Atlantic Coast: #18 Wake Forest (2-0): The Demon Deacons were off yesterday but gained two places in the poll. Wake Forest begins conference play at perennial power #24 Florida State (2-0) Saturday.
There are six teams left in the at-large pool:
#5 Missouri (3-0, Big 12)
#6 Louisiana State (2-0, SEC)
#7 Texas (2-0, Big 12)
#9 Alabama (3-0, SEC)
#10 Auburn (3-0, SEC)
#11 Texas Tech (3-0, Big 12)
An amazing nine of the top 12 teams are in the SEC and Big 12. Conference play will break some of the logjam. For now though, the three SEC teams aren’t eligible for at-large bids since Georgia and Florida have automatic berths. The BCS Championship Game pits USC and Oklahoma. The Rose Bowl must replace USC. I think organizers will select Texas, as I projected last week. Picking Texas means Missouri and Texas Tech are no longer eligible.
The Fiesta Bowl must now replace its anchor team, Oklahoma. Organizers would choose Florida, featuring all-American quarterback Tim Tebow, which is the best team available. The Sugar Bowl would then select USF, leaving the Fiesta Bowl to take BYU. The Orange Bowl has no eligible teams to choose to face Wake Forest. Therefore, BCS rules call for the next four teams to become eligible. Those teams are:
#13 Ohio State (2-1, Big 10)
#14 Brigham Young (3-0, Mountain West)
#15 East Carolina (3-0, Conference USA)
#16 Penn State (3-0, Big 10)
BYU already has a berth. The Orange Bowl would likely select OSU. Running back Chris Wells should be healthy by New Year’s Day and legions of Buckeye fans travel everywhere, bringing plenty of money to Miami. Therefore, this week’s BCS game projections are:
BCS Championship: USC vs. Oklahoma
Rose: Texas vs. Wisconsin
Fiesta: Florida vs. Brigham Young
Orange: Ohio State vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Georgia vs. South Florida
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 7
There was some change near the top of today’s Associated Press college football poll. Add West Virginia’s stunning three-touchdown loss to East Carolina and this week’s BCS projections have changed substantially. I’ll begin with the automatic bids as though the season ended today.
Pacific-10: #1 USC (1-0): The Trojans maintained their hold on the top spot despite not playing this week. USC has been preparing to face Ohio State at the Los Angeles Coliseum Saturday.
Southeastern: #2 Georgia (2-0): At least the Bulldogs defeated a Division I-A team Saturday. Georgia smashed Central Michigan (1-1), 56-17, and will play its SEC opener next week at South Carolina (1-1).
Big 12: #3 Oklahoma (2-0): The Sooners doubled the score against Cincinnati (1-1) this week, 52-26, and rose in the poll. Oklahoma travels to Washington Saturday. The Huskies are 0-2 but have played two ranked teams in Oregon and Brigham Young. They really should have gone to overtime with BYU so Oklahoma shouldn’t take them lightly.
At-Large: #4 Florida (2-0): The Gators broke open a close game at halftime to trounce in-state rival Miami, 26-3, Saturday. Florida will be off next week and travel to Tennessee (0-1) Sept. 20. Florida would take advantage of a BCS rule that guarantees a team ranked fourth in the final BCS standings a spot in a BCS game, provided that no at-large teams are ranked ahead of them. USC, Georgia, Oklahoma are conference leaders at the moment so the Gators are assured a berth. This rule means other SEC at-large teams–most notably LSU–are not eligible for selection since no conference may have three BCS teams.
Big 10: #5 Ohio State (2-0): Another sloppy win against inferior competition means another two-spot drop in the poll. The Buckeyes trailed Ohio (1-1), 14-12, after three quarters before doing just enough to win Saturday, 26-14. OSU must play better to win in Los Angeles against #1 USC next week. OSU hopes running back Chris Wells can play at his typical standout level.
Conference USA: #14 East Carolina (2-0): The Pirates defeated another ranked team, then-#8 West Virginia, 24-3, Saturday. ECU now takes advantage of the rule that lets a non-BCS conference team into a BCS game with the 14th ranking if major conference leaders fare worse. The Pirates will start conference play at home Saturday against Tulane (0-1).
Big East: #19 South Florida (2-0): The Bulls needed overtime to edge a determined Central Florida squad (1-1), 31-24, in Orlando Saturday. USF will host #13 Kansas (2-0) Friday night. Thanks to West Virginia’s loss to East Carolina, USF is now the Big East’s top team in the AP poll. Therefore, the Bulls earn this week’s automatic bid.
Atlantic Coast: #20 Wake Forest (2-0): The Demon Deacons used a field goal on the final play to squeak past Mississippi (1-1), 30-28, last week. The ACC is still struggling mightily but Wake Forest remains a standard bearer. The Demon Deacons travel to face traditional ACC power Florida State (1-0) Saturday.
With eight of 10 BCS game slots automatically earned this week, only two at-large berths are available. The teams on the list include:
#6 Missouri (2-0)
#7 Louisiana State (1-0)
#8 Texas (2-0)
#9 Auburn (2-0)
#10 Wisconsin (2-0)
#11 Alabama (2-0)
#12 Texas Tech (2-0)
We already know the SEC team–LSU, Auburn and Alabama–aren’t eligible since Georgia and Florida are automatic picks. The BCS Championship Game again features USC and Georgia. The Rose Bowl has no reason to change last week’s matchup of Big 10 leader OSU and replacement from the Big 12, Texas. Selecting Texas means Big 12 mates Missouri and Texas Tech are no longer eligible.
The Sugar Bowl, knowing LSU is off the board, would probably replace Georgia with Florida and keep the SEC crowd happy. The Fiesta Bowl would happily choose Wisconsin again to face Oklahoma. The Sugar Bowl wouldn’t be thrilled with either of the two remaining options but would likely select USF, leaving ECU to battle Wake Forest in the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS game projections for Sept. 7 are as follows:
BCS Championship: Southern California vs. Georgia
Rose: Ohio State vs. Texas
Fiesta: Oklahoma vs. Wisconsin
Orange: East Carolina vs. Wake Forest
Sugar: Florida vs. South Florida
BCS Game Projections for Sept. 1
Six major conferences within Division I-A football are guaranteed a place in one of five Bowl Championship Series games each January. Teams from other Division I-A conferences may qualify if they play well enough. Each Sunday, I’ll project who will play in the BCS games. The team with the best conference record gets the automatic berth. No attempt to predict future games will be made. All projections are based on a “what would happen if the season ended now” theory. Starting in mid-October, I’ll use the BCS standings to break any ties among conference leaders. Until then, I’ll use the most recent Associated Press poll.
Southeastern: #1 Georgia (1-0)
The Bulldogs handled Georgia Southern, 45-21, Saturday but lost another lineman to a season-ending injury. Georgia hosts Central Michigan (1-0) this week.
Big 10: #2 Ohio State (1-0)
The Buckeyes crushed Youngstown State, 43-0, but lost All-American running back Chris Wells to a leg injury. X-rays were negative and more testing will be done Monday. Wells won’t be needed Saturday against Ohio (0-1) but OSU will want to rely on him next week at #3 USC.
Pacific 10: #3 Southern California (1-0)
The Trojans traveled across the country and smashed Virginia, 52-7. USC looked strong and used a lot of players against the Cavaliers. USC is off Saturday and has two weeks to prepare for Ohio State’s visit Sept. 13.
Big 12: #4 Oklahoma (1-0)
The Sooners unsurprisingly throttled Chattanooga, 57-2, after leading 50-0 at halftime. Oklahoma’s next opponent, Cincinnati (1-0), is a bit better but the Sooners could easily start the year with five consecutive wins.
Big East: #8 West Virginia (1-0)
The Mountaineers began the post-Rich Rodriguez era in earnest Saturday with a 48-21 thumping of Villanova. WVU hosts East Carolina (1-0) this week. The Pirates upset #17 Virginia Tech last week, 27-22.
Atlantic Coast: #23 Wake Forest (1-0)
At least, the Demon Deacons won. They crunched Baylor on the road, 41-13, Thursday. However, conference kingpin Virginia Tech was surprised by East Carolina and title contenders Virginia and Clemson were soundly beaten. Not hard to put Wake Forest in the ACC’s spot this week.
Mountain West: #16 Brigham Young (1-0)
The Cougars dispatched Northern Iowa, 41-17, Saturday. They are also fortunate the ACC champion is ranked 23rd this week. BYU is 16th and normally only the top 12 teams would be considered for an at-large bid. However, since Wake Forest is below them, the Cougars qualify for a BCS game with a top-16 ranking. Realistically, BYU needs to be in the top 12 in December to get a place. The Cougars travel to Washington (0-1) Saturday.
With seven teams claiming automatic berths this week, there are three at-large positions available. To qualify for consideration, teams must have at least nine wins and be in the top 12 of the final BCS standings. No more than two teams from any conference may be in the BCS. No conference may have more than one at-large pick. Clemson is ninth at the moment but after its loss Saturday to #24 Alabama, 34-10, Clemson will sink next week. I’ve removed the Tigers from the top 12 and moved each trailing team one spot. Therefore, there are seven eligible at-large teams this week, understanding no team has nine wins yet:
#5 Florida (1-0, SEC)
#6 Missouri (1-0, Big 12)
#7 Louisiana State (1-0, SEC)
#9 Auburn (1-0, SEC)
#10 Texas (1-0, Big 12)
#11 Texas Tech (1-0, Big 12)
#12 Wisconsin (1-0, Big 10)
The BCS Championship Game is Jan. 8, 2009. The Fiesta Bowl is Jan. 5. The Sugar Bowl is Jan. 2. The Orange and Rose bowls are set for New Year’s Day. The championship game pits the top two teams in the final BCS standings. The other bowls have one or two “anchor” teams as described below:
Rose: Big 10 vs. Pac-10
Orange: ACC
Sugar: SEC
Fiesta: Big 12
The Big East champ is guaranteed a spot in either the Orange, Sugar or Fiesta but floats among the three. Based on these standings, Georgia and Ohio State would play for the BCS crown. The Sugar Bowl, having lost its anchor team, gets to choose a replacement. Bowl officials may select who they want among the eligibles and I think they’ll want LSU. The game is held in New Orleans and officials will want the reigning national champion from Baton Rouge. Since two SEC teams are now in the BCS, Florida and Auburn are no longer eligible.
The Rose Bowl lost the second-ranked anchor so it chooses a replacement next. The Tournament of Roses Committee–which organizes the world-famous parade and game on New Year’s Day–wants a Big 10/Pac-10 whenever possible. Wisconsin is on the board so the Badgers will be chosen. The fact that tens of thousands of fans traveled from Madison to Pasadena the last few years their team was in the Rose Bowl certainly helps.
The Fiesta Bowl, with its game time furthest after the Rose Bowl, chooses next. Oklahoma, from the Big 12, is already in the game so there’s no reason to pick a Big 12 opponent for a rematch. The best team remaining is West Virginia, the Big East champion. The game would be a rematch of last year’s Sugar Bowl, won by the Mountaineers, 48-21. Pitting teams in consecutive bowls is not optimal but it’s the best option this week.
The Sugar Bowl selects next. The chance to take the highly-ranked team available, featuring one of last year’s Heisman Trophy finalists at quarterback is too much to resist. Missouri, with signal caller Chase Daniel, goes to New Orleans. That pick means Big 12 mates Texas and Texas Tech are off the board. Brigham Young, the last team remaining, is left for the Orange Bowl. Therefore, the BCS projections for Sept. 1 are as follow:
Championship-Georgia vs. Ohio State
Rose-USC vs. Wisconsin
Orange-BYU vs. Wake Forest
Sugar-LSU vs. Missouri
Fiesta-Oklahoma vs. West Virginia
